California Free Press

Off the Top of My Head

Deficits Don't Matter?

by John Lawrence, July 23, 2020

Part 1

So says Dr. Stephanie Kelton in her new book, "The Deficit Myth." We know that The US Federal Reserve can just print money as they are doing in response to the pandemic. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says they will print $3.5 trillion by the end of the year. In response to the Great Recession and its aftermath the Fed printed $3.9 trillion. Other central banks around the world have also launched massive money printing programs. CNN reports, "The world's four most powerful central banks have pumped more than $9 trillion into the global economy since the financial crisis in a bid to boost growth, inflation and employment." In response to the pandemic the European Central Bank announced a huge new money printing program aimed at keeping the region's financial system functioning and helping the economy cope. With all this money printing, doesn't this put taxpayers on the hook to pay all this money back. The simple answer is "No."

Kelton is an advocate of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). She writes:

You've probably already seen MMT's central insights in action. I saw them up close when I worked in the US Senate. Whenever the topic of Social Security comes up, or when someone in Congress wants to put more money into education or health care, there's a lot of talk about how everything must be "paid for" to avoid adding to the federal deficit. But have you noticed this never seems to be a problem when it comes to expanding the defense budget, bailing out banks, or giving huge tax breaks to the wealthiest Americans, even when these measures significantly raise the deficit? As long as the votes are there, the federal government can always fund its priorities. That's how it works. Deficits didn't stop Franklin Delano Roosevelt from implementing the New Deal in the 1930s. [By the way the Reconstruction Finance Corporation which funded the New Deal actually made a profit.] They didn't dissuade John F Kennedy from landing a man on the moon. And they never once stopped Congress from going to war.

Although there are legal structures that need to be worked around, the main fact is that, however much the Federal Government spends, it can just be disappeared onto the Federal Reserve's balance sheet never to be seen again and never having to be paid back. The Fed just gave $1.5 billion to the banks to bail them out in 2008 by means of a few keystrokes on a computer keyboard. Congress was not even involved in this transaction. Under President Obama Congress authorized a $787 billion rescue package called the TARP program. This wasn't nearly enough to avert crises for millions of Americans who lost their homes in the Great Recession which was precipitated by a mortgage crisis. The Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) was supposed to help homeowners with their mortgages. Although the banks were bailed out, HAMP was a colossal failure at bailing out home mortgage holders. Even the money appropriated was not all spent. The Brookings Institution reported: "HAMP provided important relief, but it was restricted by the fact that it was a voluntary program. The program lived under the constant threat that, if it was too much trouble for the banks, then they could walk away. As a result, while providing important assistance to many homeowners, HAMP fell substantially short of its goals."

So how comes the Fed can just print money which is not added to the national debt while Congress has to appropriate money which is added to the national debt? The answer has to do with the fact that the US dollar is a "fiat" currency. A fiat currency is a currency that isn't backed by gold or any other precious metal. In 1971 President Nixon took the US off the gold standard. Prior to that anyone with dollars could exchange them for a certain amount of gold. Gold was worth $35 an ounce at that time so anyone with dollars could demand gold for them and the US was obligated to fulfill that transaction. As it turned out some foreign governments were demanding payment in gold which exceeded or soon would exceed America's gold reserves. Therefore, Nixon proclaimed that the US would no longer exchange dollars for gold. The value of the dollar would "float" and be worth a dollar just because the US government said it was. At the same time Nixon made a deal with the Saudis that they would sell oil only for dollars. This made every oil importing country have a need for dollars and establshed the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

Because the dollar could no longer be exchanged for gold, this freed up the Federal Reserve to just print dollars whenever it wanted. That's how come it can print trillions of dollars first to bail out the banks in 2008 and now to bail out the whole economy in the current pandemic. That's how come the US can run trillion dollar annual deficits ad infinitum. So if the Fed can just print dollars, why hasn't it printed a huge amount of them and given them to the poor or built infrastructure or used them for any other constructive purpose? The answer is that flooding the economy with dollars could lead to inflation. The threat of inflation is a concern that limits the Fed's printing presses from working full time. What the Fed spends its money on though is basically determined by political considerations. If the party in power wants the Fed to bail out the banks to give tax breaks to the rich and not give money to the poor, that's what the Fed will do. There are also some arcane laws and regulations about what the Fed can and cannot do which can always be changed by Congress.

Part 2

In the past the Fed has been restricted as to the kinds of bailouts it could provide. Now with recent Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) authorized by Congress, it can even bail out bicycle shops. The good news is that any money the Federal Reserve prints is not added to the national debt. The better news is that, even money authorized by Congress, that theoretically adds to the national debt, can be swallowed by the Federal Reserve because the Federal Reserve will buy any Treasuries left over from auctions. So if China or any other nation or individual investor doesn't want to buy any more US debt, the Fed will buy it and deep six it never to be seen again. Are you getting the feeling that the US can never go broke? You're right! Even better the US never has to pay off its debts because the Fed can just print more money to pay Treasuries which come due.

Kelton writes:

The real crises that we're facing have nothing to do with the federal deficit or entitlements. The fact that 21 percent of all children in the United States live in poverty - that's a crisis. The fact that our infrastructure is graded at a D+ is a crisis. The fact that inequality today stands at levels last seen during America's Gilded Age is a crisis. The fact that the typical American worker has seen virtually no real wage growth since the 1970s is a crisis. The fact that forty-four million Americans are saddled with $1.7 trillion in student loan debt is a crisis. And the fact that we ultimately won't be able to "afford" anything at all if we end up exacerbating climate change and destroying the life on this planet is perhaps the biggest crisis of all.

These are real crises. The national deficit is not a crisis.

So what is the solution? It's not a question any more of capitalism versus socialism. Even China is a capitalist country in terms of its economy. It's a question of what version of capitalism can be the most successful - successful in terms of filling the needs of most of its people, successful in diminishing inequality, successful in terms of generating the goods and services needed and wanted by people in the 21st century, successful in taking care of the environment and the earth, successful in terms of creating a healthy and well educated citizenry. Arguably, China has a better formula for capitalism that does the US. It has taken 800,000 people out of poverty in 40 years. It is building infrastructure not only in China whose infrastructure is light years ahead of the outdated US infrastructure but all over the world with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

How is China able to do this? Their secret is the fact that the renminbi is a fiat currency just like the American dollar, just like the euro. As such the Chinese are able to print whatever yuan are necessary to employ its labor force at full capacity and employ them doing constructive activities within and without China. The US by comparison does not "direct" its private sector. If the US private sector wants to make money creating garbage which sells, garbage which is profitable, it will do that. If the private sector wants to install robots and/or do its manufacturing in countries where labor is cheaper leaving millions unemployed, it will do that. If there is no political will to modernize infrastructure, infrastructure in the US will be left to rust and wear out. The genius of the BRI is that it keeps China's labor force at full employment by exporting some of them to build infrastructure in other countries. This not only improves the economic situation in those countries, it adds to Chinese GDP because those workers return to buy Chinese products. This policy of building infrastructure inside and outside China evidently does not produce inflation in the Chinese currency. That's an important thing to note. Similarly, the Fed discovered that printing $1.5 trillion in 2008 to bail out the banks did not increase inflation either.

Meanwhile, the US spends $1 trillion a year on its military when it could have spent much less to meet its actual defense needs. The US does not need to spend $1.5 trillion on its F-35 fighter jet program in order to fight a few terrorists that have nothing more than primitive weapons like Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs).The US economy leaves 500,000 people languishing in homelessness, many more - especially people of color - with a negative net worth, in other words in perpetual debt, with an economy that prints money to give tax breaks to the rich while cutting health and education programs and more. The undirected form of US capitalism allows the Fed to print money for frivolous and destructive purposes. In contrast China's directed form of capitalism has in a few short years demonstrated that it is more effective not only in increasing the wealth and consumption of the average Chinese citizen, but in winning friends and satisfying needs outside China including even US allies which are turning away from the US and towards China as a role model. Not to mention their more effective response to the coronavirus. Reactionary forces in the US, meanwhile, are trying to gin up a cold war against China and sanctioning even our allies who want to do business with China. While we warmonger, China is producing goods and services that the rest of the world wants.

Off the Top of My Head

A House Built Upon Sand: the US Economy

by John Lawrence, June 26, 2020

The wise man built his house on rock, and it withstood the rains and the floods and the wind. The foolish man built his house on sand and it collapsed. An apt metaphor for the US economy in the midst of a pandemic that is only getting worse. Before the pandemic hit, it was a full employment economy in which half the people couldn't survive a $400. emergency. It was an economy built on consumerism. Consumerism was 70% of GDP. About half the economy was small business, but these jobs and this economic activity was vulnerable. Much of it was non-essential. It was bars (by the way you can drink at home); it was restaurants (by the way you can eat at home). It was travel and hospitality (by the way you can sleep at home if you're willing to make your own bed).

The essential parts of the economy continued to operate even when the pandemic hit. It isn't fair that minimum wage workers were more exposed to the coronavirus, but, be that as it may, with some exceptions these workers did not get sick in higher ratios than anyone else. If more of the jobs were essential, productive and less frivolous, there would have been fewer jobs lost and much less unemployment. The economic house was built on sand and when the pandemic hit, it collapsed. At the same time the fault line of black racism and inequality was fully exposed. It's as if the hurricane of the pandemic cut away the underbrush and exposed this situation for what it is thanks to #BlackLivesMatter.

The Homestead Act signed by President Abraham Lincoln which gave free land to white people allowed whites to build equity and wealth while blacks who were promised 40 acres and a mule after slavery were denied even that. They ended up in many cases working the same land as sharecroppers and living in worse poverty than when they were slaves. After World War II the G.I. Bill aimed to help American veterans adjust to civilian life by providing them with benefits including low-cost mortgages, low-interest loans and financial support. African Americans did not benefit nearly as much as White Americans. Historian Ira Katznelson argues that "the law was deliberately designed to accommodate Jim Crow". In the New York and northern New Jersey suburbs 67,000 mortgages were insured by the G.I. Bill, but fewer than 100 were taken out by non-whites.

Additionally, banks and mortgage agencies refused loans to blacks, making the G.I. Bill even less effective for blacks. Once they returned from the war, blacks faced discrimination and poverty, which represented a barrier to harnessing the benefits of the G.I. Bill. So whites were able to build wealth through home ownership while blacks were denied that opportunity. Wealth from home ownership is the difference between the middle class and the poor. Home ownership became the means for the intergenerational transfer of wealth for white people. Each generation of black people started out from zero. There was an intergenerational transfer of poverty instead.

Blacks who were able to get manufacturing jobs after the Second World War did fairly well, but those jobs have by and large fled the country. In the financial crisis of 2008, the Great Recession, blacks were screwed as well. While the Federal Reserve bailed out the banks and mortgage companies hundred cents on the dollar, blacks who needed help paying their mortgages did not get it and were foreclosed on. The government could have bailed them out instead, but it didn't.

So now the country is faced with not only a public health crisis but also an economic, financial and racial crisis which would be much less severe if those manufacturing jobs still existed. The economy is not coming back as it was constructed pre-pandemic. There is no way that small business based on 100% occupancy is going to survive based on 50% occupancy. Many of the businesses like professional sports, cruises and even churches are predicated on high occupancy. People will not be comfortable with high occupancy unless a vaccine is found for COBID, but finding a vaccine is not a foregone conclusion. There are some viruses for which a vaccine has never been found including HIV, malaria and tuberculosis.

It takes a lot of money to develop a vaccine, and that money has been lacking from US budgets. There are two obstacles to faster progress, said Dr. Gregory A. Poland, director of the vaccine research group at the Mayo Clinic. “One is scientific, and one is embarrassing,” he said. The embarrassing part is the lack of investment. It takes 10 years and more than $1 billion to develop a vaccine — a small fortune for a medical advance but a pittance for a weapons system. While defense research is driven by one mega-customer, the Pentagon, vaccine researchers face a confusing hodgepodge of potential backers. In short the US has spent its money on weapons of war instead of protecting its people from pandemics which are far more deadly than terrorist attacks. 405,000 Americans died in WW II. Over half that amount have already died in this pandemic, and it's getting worse due to American foolishness at the top levels.

There is a chance now for America to start out on a new path, and that path would be more or less what Bernie Sanders and other progressives have identified as their agenda: a Green New Deal would create good jobs for millions of unemployed Americans and it could give priority to black people so that they could get started on wealth building. Low cost housing loans and subsidies could give black people the same advantages they didn't get with the Homestead Act and the G.I. bill. At the same time a Green New Deal would be converting the country to renewable energy and rebuilding infrastructure, both of which are necessary if earth is to remain habitable for the human race. Medicare for All would only bring the US up to the level of most other civilized countries.

We have to reset our priorities, reduce the military-industrial complex and make peace and have cooperation with our so-called enemies. We can quibble about Russia's and China's internal affairs or we can cooperate with them as peers to forestall global warming and create a planet worth inhabiting. We can spend our money on war or we can spend it forestalling future pandemics. The solution to many of our myriad problems is clear, and it doesn't require a revolution necessarily. Reform is all that's necessary to implement Medicare for All. Reform is all that's necessary to implement a Green New Deal. But countries that do not do what's necessary and obvious to meet the needs of the people create a situation in which violence may ensue. It's no longer a question of capitalism vs socialism. Most countries of the earth including Russia and China are a combination of both. I started with a Biblical reference so I will end with one: "Blind guides! You strain your water so you won’t accidentally swallow a gnat, but you swallow a camel!" God bless the USA.

Off the Top of My Head

Instead of Helping American Workers, the Fed Prints Money and Swallows US Debt

by John Lawrence, June 25, 2020

The Federal Reserve is printing trillions of dollars and buying US government debt. The market for US Treasury bonds is a hard sell these days because they pay so little interest: 1.37% for a 30 year bond, less than the inflation rate. China is dumping its Treasuries. It will probably accelerate the rate of dumping if tensions between the 2 countries continue. China was the US' largest creditor till recently when Japan took over that role. While the Federal Reserve has set interest rates effectively at zero, credit card companies are still charging as much as 30% interest which creates a huge number of Americans debtors especially when you throw in student loan debt which stands at $1.5 trillion. In fact, revolving consumer credit card debt reached nearly $1.1 trillion at the end of February 2020, according to the Federal Reserve G19 Report. Americans were paying as much as $121 billion in interest and fees combined by the end of 2019. That's no surprise since the Federal Reserve reported in February 2020 that the average interest rate on credit cards reached an astronomical 16.61%. While billionaires can borrow money at zero percent interest, average Americans pay 16% and up.

The effect of zero interest rates on savings accounts and Treasury bonds is to force everyone into the stock market which, although we're in a recession bordering on depression, continues to go up. It is totally divorced from reality; it wouldn't go down even in a depression like it did during the Great Depression. The Fed is keeping it artificially pumped up because so much American wealth is at stake there.

The Fed is buying Treasuries and mortgage backed securities (MBSs) to the tune of trillions of dollars. Wolf Street reported:

In March (2020) and April combined, the Fed monetized 100% of the additional Federal debt. Over the two-month period of March and April, the US government increased its debt by $1.56 trillion (most of it in April); and over the same two-month period, the Fed bought $1.56 trillion in Treasury securities (most of it in March) and thereby monetized 100% of the additional pile of debt during the two-month period.

The Fed is just swallowing all kinds of debt which is enriching the richest Americans and foreign banks even more. Problem is this forced feeding of cash by the Fed is not trickling down to the American people. It is not creating jobs. Now the Fed is creating even more ways to monetize debt by creating Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs). These SPVs can buy assets the Fed is not allowed to buy, and they can lend to entities and rich individuals to buy certain assets. Under the arcane Federal Reserve Act, these SPVs require taxpayer backing from the Treasury Department to protect the Fed from losses. The SPVs can buy asset backed securities (ABSs) on a non-recourse basis which means that, if there are any problems, taxpayers take the losses. Indirectly via its Special Purpose Vehicles and its Primary Dealers, the Fed can buy even old bicycles, as long as taxpayers take the losses.

Wolf Street reported:

These ABS can be backed by credit card loans, auto loans, student loans, equipment loans, floor plan loans, insurance premium finance loans, some loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration (SBA), and eligible loans on receivables. The loan amounts will be “equal to the market value of the ABS less a haircut and will be secured at all times by the ABS,” the Fed says.

A little history on Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) : At the end of 2010, under orders from Congress, the Fed released data on over 21,000 transactions it performed during the Financial Crisis, which revealed among many other outrageous acts, that the Fed lent to well-connected individuals and all kinds of hedge funds and others under its TALF program so that they would buy certain assets, such as these consumer loan ABS, drive up their prices, sell them to pension funds and others later for a huge profit, and pay back the loans to the Fed.

These well-connected individuals included John A. Paulson, Michael Dell, Christy K. Mack (wife of former Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack), Kendrick R. Wilson III (former Goldman executive and top aide to Hank Paulson Jr.), H. Wayne Huizenga (founder of AutoNation and Waste Management), Jonathan S. Sobel (head of Goldman’s mortgage department), etc. Some very wealthy people made a lot of money off the Fed’s bailout programs even as workers and the economy was in deep trouble.

So the Fed is paying John Paulson money by means of an SPV. Paulson is the guy who bet against the subprime mortgage market in 2007 and made one billion dollars in one day. Goldman Sachs had to pay him off, but eventually due to all the legerdemain in the financial markets, it was French and German taxpayers that paid him for his astute bet. That's casino capitalism at its best. Now he has direct access to the Federal Reserve's money printing press. Why? When there are so many poor and unemployed people in the US, why is the Fed intent on only bailing out financial markets, meaning rich people? Suffice it to say that the Fed is able to buy most anything from rich people and monetize their debt. Because of this and the fact that the rich can borrow at zero percent interest, they engage in risky bets. If they win, they pocket the money. If they lose, the Fed bails them out at zero percent interest.

Compare this with how the situation was dealt with during the Great Depression. Instead of force feeding wealthy people with interest free cash and adding trillions to the US National debt, FDR created the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC). The original legislation establishing the RFC did not limit it to lending to financial institutions; it was also authorized to provide loans for railroad construction and crop lands. In other words it created jobs for average Americans. An amendment passed in July 1932 allowed the RFC to provide loans to state and municipal governments. The purpose of these loans was to finance projects like dams and bridges, and the money would be repaid by charging fees to use these structures. To help with unemployment, a relief program was created that would be repaid by tax receipts. Under the New Deal, the powers of the RFC were greatly expanded. The agency now purchased bank stock and extended loans for agriculture, housing, exports, businesses, governments, and disaster relief. The RFC actually made money on these loans.

So the RFC could actually create jobs for average working people (and not just for hedge fund managers) doing constructive things like building houses and infrastructure. Part of the New Deal was the Works Progress Administration (WPA) relief program which made the federal government by far the largest employer in the nation. A Green New Deal would create money much as the Fed does with a few keystrokes on a computer, but, instead of just providing liquidity to banks, hedge funds and rich people, it would provide money for productive jobs paid for by the government. The government needs to be employer of last resort in order to recreate a full employment economy.

A Green New Deal would convert the American economy from a fossil fuel dependent economy to one fueled by renewable energy. In so doing it would provide good paying jobs for those in American society who have been left out or left behind. The Fed should monetize the $3 trillion backlog in American infrastructure repair and rebuilding. Making the Fed a public bank instead of a bank whose main purpose is to swallow US government debt and give money to rich people in order to provide "liquidity" would go a long way to reducing inequality and bringing the American poor including minorities into the middle class. IMHO the COBID pandemic will insure that the old economy based on 70% consumerism is not coming back. The new normal will be based on government spending to create a Green New Deal or will sputter along at about half its former level.

Off the Top of My Head

Republicans Careful Not To Be "Overly Generous"

by John Lawrence, March 25, 2020

The $2 trillion coronavirus relief package is being held up because Republicans don't want to approve a provision giving unemployed workers $600 per week over and above their state unemployment benefits. This might actually give some workers more money per week than they were actually making when they were employed. Also gig workers such as me would be eligible for these benefits which makes Republicans absolutely apoplectic. My California unemployment benefits would be about $230 so $600. more would make my weekly take home $830 considerably more than what I usually make working about 30 hours a week. Republicans think this would be a total travesty of the free market system. But they miss the point.

What is necessary for the economy to keep working is for people to go out and spend money since consumption is 70% of GDP. Neel Kashkari, who was in charge of the $700 billion TARP bailout during the 2008 financial crisis said that the country would have been better off if the government had been "much more generous" to all homeowners, no matter how deserving they were. Instead, the country was overly generous to Wall Street banks no matter how undeserving they were. And that's just the crux of the matter. To keep the economy functioning the government has to be overly generous to average people who will go out and spend their money which contributes to the 70% consumption economy. The TARP program was supposed to help homeowners with their mortgages as well as the banks. It helped the banks, but fell far short of helping the homeowners.

The Week reported:

That's the key thing to understand: Under Geithner's TARP approach, returning the banks' balance sheets to health necessitated bleeding American families dry.

"Tim [Geithner] thought he was smart enough to have it both ways; that he could protect the bank executives and stockholders and get the same result when they actually restructure the banks," Silvers told The Week. "And he was wrong." That choice also goes a long way towards explaining why, even though the crisis in the financial system itself passed rather quickly, the massive collapse in employment took 10 grinding years to repair. It's why 10 million American families lost their homes, and why, almost a decade later, the bank bailouts remain a source of simmering rage, nihilism, and distrust among voters.

"It was an extremely costly mistake," Silvers concluded. "In terms of homeownership, jobs, small businesses, and perhaps most of all the American people's trust in their government."

The Home Affordable Mortgage Program (HAMP), which was a major part of TARP, was designed to keep 4 million homeowners out of foreclosure. However, only about 1.6 million people were helped. The failure was not for lack of funding. Hundreds of billions of dollars was available and could have gone directly to help struggling homeowners who were being driven out of their homes, but  “Treasury just sat on that money and didn’t do it,” Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program Neil Barofsky said.

So with that experience and that knowledge in mind, Democrats in Congress don't want to repeat the same mistake. They want money in the hands of the American people who will go out and spend it. Poorer Americans are more likely to spend any relief package given to them, and, if they end up getting more per week in unemployment benefits than they were making at their job, so much the better. The banks are already fully capitalized. Losing no time the Federal Reserve has already given $1.5 trillion to the banks and lowered interest rates to zero.

Off the Top of My Head

China Out Capitalizes Capitalist Nations

by John Lawrence, March 23, 2020

Who would have thunk it? China has taken capitalist financial methods to the next level with the result that it is progressing more rapidly in material abundance and a consumer society than the proto-capitalist nations of the world: the US and Europe. Sure, politically, they are an authoritarian nation. But that expedites their development since all institutions are on the same wavelength. In particular their central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBC) funds infrastructure projects all over the world. This keeps China a full employment society. They put all the Chinese people to work building infrastructure which expands the money supply in a very widespread way. Essentially the PBC provides loans for all these projects which means it creates the money just as US banks do when they create loans or the Federal Reserve does when it provides "liquidity" to the markets through quantitative easing (QE).

The Federal Reserve has actually expanded the range of market interventions it can do. It used to be that the Fed could only set interest rates. That was it. Now it can buy corporate bonds, state and local bonds and give money directly to corporations to keep them afloat. In fact it can act more like the PBC which interacts directly in the Chinese economy. The Fed can take debts directly onto its balance sheet where they may remain forever. This is exactly what it did in the 2008 financial crash. It provided cash directly to banks in return for mortgage backed securities and Treasury bonds thus providing liquidity to the banks so that they would not go under. Now the banks are well capitalized, and, since they know that the Fed stands ready to bail them out again, they have no worries. In fact the term "bail them out" is actually a misnomer at this point. It can be replaced with "provide them with cash" as necessary.

There was an interesting interview on 60 Minutes with Neel Kashkari, Obama's Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, who was in charge of the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) during the Great Recession. He noted that TARP, which was supposed to help out actual people with their mortgages did not go far enough. They were too stingy with it, and not very many people got helped. He says that this prolonged the recession. Instead of being stingy as they were, they should have been "overly generous." That is the lesson he learned. So now in the coronavirus recession, his advice is that the Fed should be overly generous in providing relief to actual everyday people and not just to banks. At this time the banks are doing very well, thank you.

It is well known that money is created by the banks themselves when they create a loan which they do with a couple of keystrokes on a computer. Why is this possible? Because money has no relationship to gold or any other precious metal any more. That's why it's called "fiat money." So what bankers and economists are realizing (which has been the secret of China's success all along resulting in their bringing 800 million people out of poverty in 40 years) is that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve can do the exact same thing. It can create fiat money just like the banks do, like Wall Street does. The only concern is that money so created would lead to inflation, but, as Kashkari noted, there was no inflation even after the Fed created trillions of dollars in 2008 most of which went directly to bankers, hedge funds and rich individuals and not to the average American. Now Kashkari, who is President of the Minneapolis branch of the Federal Reserve, is saying that the Fed could provide liquidity to the American people and not just to the banks. How this will probably happen is by Congress passing a bill on the "fiscal side" as they say. Then they will sell more Treasury bonds to cover the increased deficit. Wall Street banks will buy them since other countries are decreasing their purchase of US debt, and then the Fed will provide liquidity (cash) to Wall Street taking the Treasury bonds onto its balance sheet where they will reside forever probably. This is why the national deficits and debt are no problem because the Fed can print money to cover them ad infinitum. It's as if the Fed provided money directly to the US economy, but, by law, they have to do so indirectly.

Ellen Brown understood this possibility long before Neel Kaskari had his "awakening."

America’s chief competitor in the trade war is obviously China, which subsidizes not just worker costs but the costs of its businesses. The government owns 80% of the banks, which make loans on favorable terms to domestic businesses, especially state-owned businesses. Typically, if the businesses cannot repay the loans, neither the banks nor the businesses are put into bankruptcy, since that would mean losing jobs and factories. The non-performing loans are just carried on the books or written off. No private creditors are hurt, since the creditor is the government, and the loans were created on the banks’ books in the first place (following standard banking practice globally).

Precisely! So no need to worry about another Great Recession or Depression. The US could effectively provide a Universal Basic Income (UBI) to its citizens indefinitely as Andrew Yang proposed.

As observed by Jeff Spross in a May 2018 Reuters article titled “China’s Banks Are Big. Too Big?”:

[B]ecause the Chinese government owns most of the banks, and it prints the currency, it can technically keep those banks alive and lending forever.…

It may sound weird to say that China’s banks will never collapse, no matter how absurd their lending positions get. But banking systems are just about the flow of money.

Spross quoted former bank CEO Richard Vague, chair of The Governor’s Woods Foundation, who explained, “China has committed itself to a high level of growth. And growth, very simply, is contingent on financing. Beijing will come in and fix the profitability, fix the capital, fix the bad debt, of the state-owned banks … by any number of means that you and I would not see happen in the United States.”

There is no reason why the US could not emulate China. From an economic point of view QE or a UBI would not be inflationary as long as the dollars provided to the system were either invested in new plants and equipment, infrastructure or consumption. What is needed now is about $10 trillion worth of Green Infrastructure, a Green New Deal funded indirectly by the Fed. This money can be provided to the American people and not only rich billionaires as was done in 2008 and as China is providing directly to its workers who are kept busy building infrastructure in the Belt and Road initiative. It would also ease economic inequality and not induce inflation as long as the money is widely distributed.

Off the Top of My Head

The Federal Reserve's Role is to Bail Out Wall Street, Not the American People

by John Lawrence, March 21, 2020

The purpose of the Federal Reserve is to bail out the banks, not to bail out you. During the Great Recession of 2008, the Fed gave trillions to the banks. The average Joe that couldn't pay his mortgage lost his home to foreclosure. Banks only keep a portion of their money as reserves. They create loans out of thin air. If someone can't make payments on a loan, the bank will foreclose. If the loan is secured by property, that property will become the bank's property. If at the same time more people want to take their deposits out of the bank than the bank has in reserves, the bank is in trouble. That's where the Federal Reserve comes in. It floods the bank with liquidity meaning the cash to pay out to the bank's customers who want their money back. At the same time the Fed may take the bank's non performing loans onto its balance sheet. No one cares if the Fed has a bunch of non performing loans on its balance sheet. They can just stay there ad infinitum.

What happened during the Great Recession was that, thanks to financial instruments called derivatives, banks were liable for a lot more money than simple mortgages and other retail loans. They had committed to covering bets like interest rate swaps or collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) without understanding the liabilities they had agreed to. Derivatives represent gambles. A hedge fund will bet that an underlying security will go up or go down. When they win their bets, as they did in 2008, mainly due to foreclosures, it is similar to a run on the bank only a lot more money is at stake. Certain banks and financial institutions did not have the money to pay off the bet. So the Fed stepped in and paid off the bet for them. This was how the financial crisis was resolved. All the gamblers were made whole by the Federal Reserve. All the bets were paid off and very few financial institutions had to go out of business. Lehman Brothers was one institution that did go bankrupt and was liquidated.

The Fed can control how much money is sloshing around in the economy by raising or lowering the prime interest rate. That's the interest rate a bank pays to borrow money. The bank then charges the average Joe a lot higher interest rate, and they make money on the spread. Obviously, the Fed doesn't want the retail banks to make foolish loans that won't be paid back because then it will have to bail out the banks that made such loans. However, this is exactly what led to the 2008 financial crisis. The banks were making "liar loans" base on stated income. A waitress could go into the bank and just state her income was $125,000. a year. There was no checking. She was given a mortgage to buy a house. Then, when she couldn't make the payments on the house, the bank foreclosed. When the bank couldn't resell the house and get its money back, the bank's reserves were diminished and finally it couldn't meet its obligations. That's when the Fed stepped in with more liquidity. The Fed just created money out of thin air the same way the banks created money for loans, and flooded the banking system with it.

Average people lost their homes and their jobs, but investors and gamblers who had bet that the economy would collapse were paid off. This is the solution that Obama oversaw that was created by his protege Tim Geithner, Obama's Secretary of the Treasury. Now the question might be asked why the gamblers who had bet that the economy would fail were paid in full because the Federal Reserve created the money out of thin air to pay them while there was no money created to bail out the American people who had lost their homes and their jobs. Why was their no money created to alleviate the suffering? That's because that's not the Fed's job. The Fed's job is to bail out the banks. Hedge fund manager John Paulson made an estimated $2.5 billion during the crisis by betting against the housing market.

It doesn't take a genius to see that the US might have better spent its money by more widely distributing the trillions that the Fed created rather than paying off a hedge fund manager to the tune of a couple billion dollars, but again that's not the Fed's job. It should have been Obama's job to step in and demand that investor/gamblers not be paid, and that the Fed's trillions of dollars that it created go to the average John and Jayne that lost everything. But that's not how things work in the US capitalist economy. The Fed is not beholden to the American people. It's only beholden to the banks, and even there, it can decide which ones it wants to fail (Lehman Bros.) and which ones it wants to bail out (every other bank).

The trillions of dollars created by the Federal Reserve in its Quantitative Easing (QE) program go directly into the hands of investors meaning rich people. This does not "trickle down" to the American public. So it's no mystery why economic inequality is increasing, why the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. Much is made about how the Federal Reserve is "independent" from the Federal government. That's because it is a privately owned, wholly owned subsidiary of the big banks. It is literally owned by Wall Street and it's only beholden to Wall Street. It only serves the American public in the sense that it keeps the financial system operating smoothly supposedly.

Consider the alternative. A public bank, one beholden to the American people or its representatives, would have been able to direct the money flow at least partially to the direct alleviation of suffering of the American people during a recession or a depression. The Reconstruction Finance Corporation served the role during the Great Depression of getting money directly to state and local governments and to the American people. It supported banks as well, but the monies also flowed directly into the economy without having to take the form of loans created by the Wall Street banks. It was more hands on in bailing out certain industries.

A public bank, such as exists in North Dakota, can make loans directly to people and small businesses. It doesn't deal in fancy derivatives and is accountable not to the banking system but to the people in general. In North Dakota's case it's accountable to the people of North Dakota to whom it returns its profits. The Central Bank of the United States could be a public bank on the national level which would replace the Federal Reserve with the mandate of supporting the American people directly as well as the banking structure. It would not deal in derivatives which only benefit hedge funds and drive inequality.

The coronavirus could induce another Great Depression depending on how long it lasts. However, don't expect the Federal Reserve to protect the American people although it will protect Wall Street. No investor/gambler need fear losing their money. In fact the John Paulsons of the world, who have probably already taken out fantastic bets that the economy will go down, stand to make billions supplied of course by the Federal Reserve which will create the money out of thin air. This sloshing around of money will be scooped up by the billionaire class. Then the Federal government will come through on the fiscal side to supply aid of some sort to the American people while adding all this money to the national debt.

Does the Federal Reserve Print Money?

by John Lawrence from the San Diego Free Press

The Federal Reserve is America's Central Bank

The Fed doesn't actually "print" money in the sense of ink on paper hundred dollar bills. But what it can do is create money with a few keystrokes on a computer. Money so created is called "fiat money" since it's not backed by gold or anything else. The Fed currently prints the money to purchase $40 billion in mortgage backed securities and $45 billion in government bonds each month. The rationale for doing this is that it keeps interest rates low which is thought to be necessary to keep the economy humming. Before the financial crisis of 2008-09, the Fed managed to keep interest rates low by adjusting the interest rate at which banks borrow overnight. But after the financial crisis, the Fed needed a more robust policy which is called Quantitative Easing or QE. This policy is mainly a giveaway to the big Wall Street banks to augment their reserves. The lack of sufficient reserves is thought to have been the problem that caused the financial crisis.

The Fed’s massive QE program was ostensibly designed to lower mortgage interest rates, stimulating the economy. And rates have indeed been lowered – for banks. But the form of QE the Fed has engaged in – creating money on a computer screen and trading it for assets on bank balance sheets – has not delivered money where it needs to go: into the pockets of consumers, who create the demand that drives the real economy. Low interest rates will certainly stimulate the economy in the sense that they will encourage the sale of cars and houses, both of which are usually done by borrowing money at interest. So the Fed's policies are all about generating economic activity by creating more debt for average Americans and this results in bigger profits for Wall Street.

The Fed's QE policy means that the Fed buys government bonds and mortgage backed securities from private investors - mainly the big Wall Street banks - and then credits the accounts of those banks with the cash. In return the Fed takes possession of the bond or security it has just bought which is just added to the Fed's balance sheet. Now if the Fed sells that bond back into the market or redeems it from the government, it would get the cash that it had created back and could just extinguish it by a few more keystrokes on the computer. At that point the money that had previously been created will have been destroyed and would be subtracted from the Fed's balance sheet. So in that long run scenario the Fed would not have "printed" or created any money at all except on a temporaray basis. The rub is that the Fed may never remove that money from its balance sheet. It certainly hasn't done so thus far. The Fed has been buying bonds since early 2009. During that time its balance sheet has increased from $900 billion to over $4 trillion today.

A secondary effect of keeping interest rates low is that it lowers the Federal government's interest payments on its gargantuan Federal debt. That tends to neutralize the issue of government spending and deficits as a political issue. The Fed has also been buying the bonds being sold by the US government to finance its deficit. This is considered a Ponzi scheme by some writers as the Fed buys up government deficits and in effect disappears them making sure that bond redeemers always get paid. Bernie Madoff went to jail for doing the same thing except Bernie could not create money with a few keystrokes on a computer like the Fed can.

The negative side of low interest rates is that it hurts savers. Saving accounts produce hardly any interest so there is not much incentive to save. There is, therefore, an incentive to invest in the stock market which has risen dramatically and basically has become a bubble similar to the rapid increase in home values prior to the Great Recession of 2008. When that bubble burst, home values fell precipitously. The same thing could happen to the stock market if the Fed eases off its policy of QE and interest rates rise. Then the stock market could deflate like a punctured balloon.

So what is the other negative aspect of the Fed's QE policy? All that money the Fed is creating or printing, if you will, is pooling in the financial system mainly among rich investors. It is not going into the real economy or into the average person's pocket. If that money were injected into the real economy, it could be used for rebuilding, repairing and building new infrastructure, for example, which would create jobs. Instead the Fed's idea of creating jobs is to keep interest rates low so that more cars and houses will be built and sold. The jobs created will be mainly for car salesmen and real estate salespersons as well as construction crews and assembly line workers.

Money pooling in the financial system and not entering the real economy has only an indirect effect on economic growth, and has the primary purpose of making rich people, especially bankers, richer. This is thought to be a good thing in that it shores up bank reserves which were drastically depleted due to the casino operations leading up to the Great Recession when the banks collapsed not essentially because they had little in the way of reserves but primarily because they had run up their gambling debts to excessive levels with nothing to back them up.

So what will the Fed do now? It may never be able to reduce its balance sheet by either redeeming government bonds or selling them into the market because that would raise interest rates and drive up the amount the Federal government would have to pay in interest on its debt. At that point paying interest on the debt might take up the entire or almost the entire Federal budget. In addition raising interest rates would put a damper on economic activity in the form of discouraging people from purchasing cars, houses and other consumer items. Since consumption is 70% of GDP, this could lead to a recession. This would again place the big banks in jeopardy because, as economic activity diminishes, interest payments to the banks - a big part of their income - will go down, and this will add to the downward spiral which could produce Great Recession, Part 2.

Therefore, the government bonds and mortgage backed securities that the Fed is taking on its balance sheet via their money printing operations may never be redeemed or sold and may have effectively disappeared into a black hole as the Fed's balance sheet continues to increase. The Fed may be stuck printing money ad infinitum and subsidizing the banks at the expense of the average American in perpetuity. The Wall Street banks, it should be pointed out, make money every time the Fed purchases a government bond or mortgage backed security from them. Since the Fed is prohibited by law from buying government bonds from the government directly, Wall Street banks effectively act as middle men and they do so for a price, a price the Fed gladly pays, and for no risk on the part of the banks.

As the Fed continues to subsidize the big banks with money pooling at the upper end of the income spectrum, inequality increases in American society. The Fed policy of QE is a policy designed to increase inequality as the price to be paid to keep the economy rolling. The price of increased economic activity and rising GDP is the further indebtedness of the American people as they buy cars, houses and other consumer items with borrowed money. The Fed, which is not publicly owned, functions to improve the financial prospects of the Wall Street banks which are its real owners. (They actually own most of the stock in the Federal Reserve.) Is it any wonder then that the Fed's policies primarily serve the interests of its owners - the big Wall Street banks? A truly public central bank, one owned by the people of the US, could have the same function of increasing the money supply as needed, but it might do so by using the fiat money so created to more directly benefit the American people.

Germany tried “abnormal” money printing in the early 1920’s after WW 1 and the result was hyperinflation, collapse of the German economy, and the rise of Hitler. The same might happen in the US if hyperinflation were to start taking place while the Fed is stuck in handing out money to the big banks in order to keep them afloat. To fight hyperinflation the Fed would have to raise interest rates and this might bring the US economy to a grinding halt. The policy of reducing the amount of QE on a monthly basis is called "tapering." This doesn't mean that the Fed is selling off the government bonds or mortgage backed securities on its balance sheet, just buying less of them than they had previously. The Fed will still be adding billions to its balance sheet every month. Inflation is the only thing that will force the Fed to reduce its balance sheet. Otherwise, it could disappear government deficits and bank owned mortgage backed securities into its black hole indefinitely.

If the Fed starts to taper, the big boys at the Big Banks might take this as a signal to short the stock market, and this might cause the stock market bubble to burst as stock values are driven down. The average non sophisticated 401k investor would probably panic and sell on the dip losing the value of his or her retirement savings as the Wall Street guys make a killing. When the market reaches its lowest ebb, the Big Guys will start buying again driving the market back up. After the market rallies sufficiently, the average guy will work up the courage to get back in with his 401k, having lost a ton of money selling on the dip and buying on the rally, just the opposite of what sophisticated investors do. Concomitantly, the Fed will probably reintroduce its policy of QE in order to stabilize the economy, and it might have to admit that this policy will continue indefinitely or even ad infinitum. The denouement is that the rich will have gotten richer while the middle class will have been reduced to penury, just the same tendency as happened after the recession of 2008.

This debt based, Wall Street centric, unstable economy know as US capitalism could be changed by replacing the privately owned Federal Reserve with a publicly owned central bank that created and extinguished fiat money as necessary in order to more directly benefit the American people and in such a way that it serves the needs of the real economy rather than being an effort to stabilize and profit Wall Street banks. Rather than providing jobs indirectly only if more debt for the American people is created, a public central bank could inject money as needed directly into the real economy creating jobs in the process and building wealth for the average American while reducing inequality.

Flooding the World with Government Issued Fiat Money - Implications for the Dollar as the World's Reserve Currency

by John Lawrence

The American solution to the 2008 financial crisis was flooding the economy with money. There was the TARP, the Troubled Asset Relief Program, a $700 billion bailout of the US' largest banks. But that was only the beginning. Dr. Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve bank added another $9 trillion to the money supply with his policy of "quantitative  easing" which is just a euphemism for "printing money." The Fed has printed money again and again. There was a follow-up policy, QE2, because the Fed figured it hadn't printed enough money with QE1. In addition to the US Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been printing money to bail out Greece and other vulnerable European economies. The Central Bank of Japan has also been printing money fast and furiously. Both the US Fed and the ECB are legally prohibited from buying up their country's debts directly, but they can loan money to their big banks and these banks can in turn loan money to the respective countries in an indirect "wink-wink" transaction thus getting around the inconvenient limitations imposed by law. As a consequence another layer of interest accrues to the big banks increasing their power and dominance over the world economy to the point that supposedly sovereign countries have become mere dependencies on them.

What does all this money creation do? First, it supposedly offers a stimulus to economies that are verging on recession. But that is not really happening due to the fact that most of this money is simply being siphoned off by the world's big banks, and, instead of stimulating the economy, is simply going into the financial sector fueling even more speculation and contributing to a possible further meltdown and bailout down the road. In Europe the money is simply going to pay down debts incurred by the various countries. Nothing is being done to spur Greece's economy, for example. Instead the Greeks are being subjected to a regime of austerity - firing workers, reducing pensions and generally creating economic malaise for the average Greek citizen. This will force the Greek economy into a deeper recession with the result that Greek indebtedness will only increase requiring another round of bailouts by the ECB.

Another effect of printing money, sometimes called government "fiat money", since it's not backed by gold or anything else, is the debasement of the currency and inflation. In general the larger the money supply, the more inflation there is. This is not a big concern when an economy is in recession, but becomes a greater concern when the economy starts to "heat up." As far as the debasement of the currency is concerned, the dollar is starting to lose value with respect to other currencies. The more fiat money the government creates, the less the dollar will be worth and this has implications for the dollar as the world's "reserve currency."

Ellen Brown has written extensively about the good aspects of fiat money, namely, Abraham Lincoln's use of it to win the Civil War and build the transcontinental railroad. But all fiat money is not created equal. In Lincoln's day his fiat money went directly into the "real" economy. That is it went to average working people to fight a war and create infrastructure. It avoided having to borrow the money and saved the US government $4 billion in interest. There is a difference in the fiat money that the Fed and the ECB are creating today. Their fiat money is going directly into the financial sector instead of into projects that distribute the money to average citizens and workers. In other words in a perverted downward spiral, today's fiat money is going to pay off the world's big banks like JC Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs and to pay interest on huge debts owed to private bankers. The Lloyd Blankfeins and the Jamie Diamonds of the world are profiting while the average working person and citizen is only going deeper into debt. The money is not "trickling down", making Republican assertions that all we need to do to get the economy booming again is to give more money to the rich, a ridiculous assertion. The only way to get the economy working again is to give the money directly to the average working person, but this possibility is not even on the radar of the world's western economies like it was during the Great Depression. That is, instead of inserting fiat money into the financial sector resulting in huge profits for bankers and miniscule results for the middle class, the money needs to be inserted into the economy directly at the middle class level which is to say in the form of infrastructure development and support programs like food stamps and tax breaks for the middle class.

The dollar is the world's reserve currency only because the US cut a deal with the middle east oil sheiks that oil on the world market would only be traded in dollars. But here too the dollar is being undercut since some countries, notably China, are cutting direct country to country deals which bypass the world oil market and bypass having to purchase oil in dollars. There are also moves afoot to replace the dollar by a basket of other currencies which would compete with the dollar. All of this is not promising for the continuance of the predominace of the dollar. Increasingly, US Treasuries are becoming less desirable as investment vehicles which means that the money printed by the Federal Reserve is increasingly being used just to buy up the US deficit which is the shortfall between Federal government expenditures and Federal tax revenues. So money is being printed just to bridge the gap. Obviously, this can only be a short term solution to US deficit and fiscal problems. For the long term the US economy itself has to produce tax revenues sufficient to balance government expenditures or, more likely, to pay increasingly higher interest rates to attract private investors just as Greece and Spain are having to do.

So as the US money supply is further diluted by quantitative easing, the value of US money is diminishing, dollar-denominated debt is less desirable as an investment and the role of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is being eroded. European countries are in a similar predicament having become essentially subsidiaries of US and European banks. One of the statistics that substantiates these assertions is that 93% of the income gains since the Great Recession have gone to the upper 1%. In other words most of the money created has gone to the hedge funds, large banks and other elements of the financial sector. This money has not "trickled down" to the real economy. This is the ultimate denouement of the fact that the western world has relied too much on debt basing their economies. Rather than spending from strength which is spending from savings and accumulated wealth which countries with sovereign wealth funds are able to do, western countries and individuals have overspent by going into debt and the accrued interest is only driving them further into debt. The result is that huge amounts of interest are owed to the big banks, and this amount of money is swamping western economies and debasing the values of the dollar, euro and yen.

In a Trillion Euros Didn't Buy Much Time, Rick Ackerman discusses the fact that the US and Europe have both been reduced to the same level. Their central banks are being forced into the position of bailing out the US and the European countries by buying up their debt since private investors are becoming more and more reluctant to buy it. The US Fed is printing money to make up the difference between US government expenditures and what US taxes and private investors are willing to fund and in the European case, the ECB is buying up Greek and Spanish debt that private investors are turning up their noses at. This buying of debt means that central banks are effectively printing money to pay off the big banks which are owed money that US and European citizens as taxpayers don't have the money to pay and which increasingly cannot be borrowed from private investors.

All this supports my contention that the real action in the world economy these days is not with the average worker/consumer. The average person is becoming increasingly irrelevant. Instead the big banks, hedge funds and central banks are where the action is. In the US the big banks were bailed out while practically nothing was done to bail out the average person. Just think of the foreclosure crisis where HAMP, the Home Affordable Mortgage Program, turned out to be a worthless, toothless approach which did more damage to the average home owner by raising hopes which were later dashed than if it had never been enacted. It did almost nothing to protect home owners from being foreclosed on even though most of the foreclosures were fraudulent. In some cases home owners were led on being promised modified mortgages if they would only keep up current payments only to be foreclosed on at a later date instead of being given the revised mortgages they had been promised. The government's attitude was "we have to let the banks do anything they want, even engage in fraudulent activities, because to do otherwise would risk collapse of the entire system." Ellen Brown's plea for the elimination of the debt based, interest oriented economy in favor of public banking favoring fiat money injected into the real economy instead of into the financialized economy seems further and further from any possibility of being realized.

 

Will Mortgage Settlement Avoid Repeating Obama’s Foreclosure Failures?

Posted on Feb 11, 2012 from Truthdig

AP / Susan Walsh

By Paul Kiel, ProPublica

This piece originally appeared at ProPublica.

On February 9th, administration officials stood alongside state attorneys general to announce a $25 billion mortgage settlement. It was reminiscent of a big announcement by administration officials three Februarys ago involving an even bigger number: $50 billion. That money was supposed to go to the administration’s signature mortgage modification program, which eventually became HAMP.

Three years later, HAMP (the Home Affordable Modification Program) is widely considered a failure. That failure provides key context to [Thursday’s] announcement.

According to the state attorneys general and the administration, a major selling point of the new settlement is that it won’t repeat HAMP’s mistakes. This deal, they say, is different.

“If people are eligible for a loan modification, the banks won’t screw up those decisions anymore,” said Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller.

North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper made a rather pointed reference to HAMP: “I think strong, court-ordered enforcement with teeth distinguish this deal from those earlier efforts to help homeowners.”

As we’ve reported extensively over the past several years, homeowners seeking to avoid foreclosure by gaining a loan modification have often been frustrated by banks’ errors and delays. In the worst cases, the banks’ shoddy mortgage servicing has led to wrongful foreclosures. The errors have sometimes continued even after homeowners got an elusive modification.

When HAMP was launched, it came with the promise that mortgage servicers would have to abide by clear rules. The handbook laying out these rules now approaches 200 pages. But as we’ve detailed, enforcement of those rules has been lacking.

According to the state attorneys general, the settlement directly addresses that. The five big servicers—Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Ally Financial (formerly GMAC)— that will sign on to the not-quite-finalized deal have agreed to follow a raft of new rules. Some of these rules, like how quickly a bank must respond to a homeowner’s completed modification application, come straight from HAMP.

What’s different this time, they say, is that there are clear consequences for rule-breaking. But plenty of questions remain, and only time will tell if the latest promises of mortgage-servicer accountability will be kept.

“The big picture is that these new rules are only good if servicers follow them,” said Alys Cohen of the National Consumer Law Center. “Enforcement will really matter.”

As critics like Firedoglake blogger David Dayen have pointed out, the new system relies to some extent on “self-assessments” by the banks to identify violations of the new rules. But Miller, the Iowa attorney general, notes that consumers will be able to complain to their state’s attorney general, who will make sure their complaints are heard.

The settlement does create a “monitor” who will have the power to impose penalties. The administration says a bank could be fined up to $1 million per violation and up to $5 million for repeat violations. But the details released so far don’t show how violations will be applied or counted. (If thousands of homeowners, for instance, have been wrongly denied modifications, will that be counted as one violation or thousands?)

HAMP came with no penalties for participating mortgage servicers that broke the rules. It was only in the past several months that the Treasury Department decided to address servicer noncompliance—by temporarily withholding the program’s subsidy payments. (As for the millions of dollars in incentives that Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and the other servicers were paid over the previous years, they get to keep that.)

The settlement is not only supposed to have more sticks than HAMP, it’s also a chance for the administration to breathe life back into the old program. Treasury recently made major revisions to HAMP to allow more homeowners to qualify for modifications.

“The extension and expansion of HAMP are designed to be complementary to the settlement,” said Treasury spokeswoman Andrea Risotto.

For instance, the program was set to end at the end of 2012 but now will accept new homeowners until the end of 2013. (The banks will operate under the umbrella of the settlement through 2014 or so.) In addition, Treasury has broadened some of the criteria to make it easier to qualify.

Some of the millions of homeowners who were rejected might be eligible for a second shot. Hundreds of thousands of homeowners were originally granted “trial modifications” through the program in 2009 and early 2010, only to be denied permanent modifications many months (and sometimes more than a year) later. Most of those homeowners started those trials by just giving their income information over the phone. They’ll be eligible to reapply, according to the proposed rules.

One of the recent changes to HAMP could reduce the cost of the settlement for banks—and leave taxpayers footing a chunk of the bill.

As part of [Thursday’s] deal, the five banks agreed to reduce billions in mortgage debt for homeowners in danger of foreclosure. Most of those principal reductions—about 85 percent according to Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan—will likely be for loans that the banks hold on their own books.

HAMP also has long offered investors incentives to encourage principal reductions. For loans owned by banks, the money goes right to them. In January, Treasury tripled those incentives. In cases in which a loan qualifies for HAMP, the government will now pay investors, often the banks themselves, up to roughly two-thirds the cost of a principal reduction.

The banks have agreed to perform at least $10 billion worth of principal reductions as part of the settlement. Because it’s unclear how many of the principal reduction modifications will be done through HAMP, it’s impossible to say how much of that will be covered by the government subsidies.

So far, about 40,000 HAMP modifications have been done through HAMP’s principal reduction program at a median reduction of $67,196, meaning that roughly $2.7 billion in principal has been reduced. If the banks find HAMP more attractive because of the increased incentives, that amount might increase sharply, and HAMP could experience something of a renaissance.