by Frank Thomas
Data below will give some "big picture insights" into VOTER TURNOUT in U.S. Presidential Elections and Changing Racial and Ethnic VOTER Mix.
In 2016, there were about 245.5 million of the voting age population of ages 18 and older. Turnout is usually calculated based on estimated voting-age population which was 137.5 million for a 55.7% turnout in the 2016 presidential election. However, political scientists define voter turnout as a share of the voting-eligible citizens after subtracting non-citizens, ineligible felons from the voting-age population and adding eligible overseas voters. This calculation approach gave a 2016 total U.S. turnout result of about 60% in the presidential election of 2016.
That result compared to 70% for the U.S. voting age citizens registered in 2016 - versus 91% in Canada (2015), 96% in UK (2017), 97% in Sweden (2017). Registered voters clearly represent a much smaller share of potential voters in the U.S. than just about any other OECD country. Millions of Americans are not registered millions are registered but do not vote.
CHART I. PEW U.S. TURNOUT DATA BY AGE GROUP – PAST PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
AGE GROUP 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
18 - 29 40.3% 49.0% 51.1% 45.0% 46.1%
30 - 44 58.5% 62.4% 61.8% 59.5% 58.7%
45 - 64 67.8% 70.4% 69.2% 67.9% 66.6%
65 and Older 69.6% 71.0% 70.3% 72.0% 70.9%
2016 Actual Turnout = 60%
Frank Thomas: 2020 WEIGHTED FORECAST OF TOTAL VOTER TURNOUT
2020 Turnout % Share of Total Registered Voters 2020 Forecast Voter Turnout
53.0% x 20% = 10.6% )
64.6% x 25% = 16.2% ) Weighted
71.9% x 31% = 22.3% ) Averages
74.4% x 24% = 17.9% )
100% 67% = 2020 Total Turnout
The 67% FORECAST TOTAL VOTER TURNOUT % for the Nov. 3, 2020 presidential election may well be on the low side and could reach the 70% range! Americans are well aware this is perhaps one of the most important, if not the most important, presidential election in the history of our country. They are very likely coming out in record numbers not seen since WWII.
SOURCE: CHARTS I-IV - PEW Research Center - "The Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition of U.S. Electorate," by Ruth Igienik and Abby Budiman.
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CHART II. U.S. ELIGIBLE VOTERS BY RACE & ETHNICITY
2000 2010 2018 Eligible Citizen Voter Population TOTAL 2000-2018 Increase % of Total Increase
WHITE 67% 72% 76% 157.5 Mil. 9.8 Mil. 24%
HISPANIC 7% 10% 13% 29.8 Mil. 15.5 Mil. 39%
BLACK 12% 12% 13% 29.2 Mil. 6.8 Mil. 17%
ASIAN 2% 4% 4% 10.3 Mil. 5.7 Mil. 14%
OTHERS 2% 2% 3% 6.8 Mil. 2.4 Mil. 6%
TOTAL INCREASE 40.3 Million 100%
The strong 24% increase in White voters is largely due to the sharp increase in women voters who will vote mainly for Joe Biden for president. Same applies to a strong 39% increase in Hispanic voters and high 31% increase in Black and Asian voters who will also vote mainly for Joe Biden. In short, these Race & Ethnicity voter trends benefit the Democrats in coming November 3 elections.
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CHART III. HIGH VOTER TURNOUT OF WHITE AND BLACK IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Percentage of Eligible Voters Who Say They Voted in 2016 - 2020 % Forecast of Voter Turnout
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 NOTE: 2020 F. Thomas Forecast
WHITE 62% 67% 66% 64% 65% 68%
HISPANIC 45% 47% 50% 48% 48% 54%
BLACK 57% 60% 65% 67% 60% 71%
ASIAN 43% 44% 47% 47% 49% 55% ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CHART IV. ALL RACIAL & ETHNIC VOTER GROUPS FAVOR DEMOCRATS, EXCEPT WHITES
2018/2019 1994 NOTE: 2020 F. Thomas Forecast
Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican
WHITE 42% 53% 39% 51% 46% 51%
HISPANIC 63% 29% 57% 29% 66% 31%
BLACK 83% 10% 81% 11% 84% 11%
ASIAN 72% 17% 53% 33% 75% 19%
These Racial and Ethnic data trends strengthen the Democrat Voter Turnout much more than they do the Republican Party Voter Turnout base. The White Voter Group is the one notable exception, but current polls show this that this voter group is becoming more equally divided between both parties. This is in no small part due to the powerful Black, Hispanic, Asian Voter Groups, Young and Older Age Groups as well as the fast growing White Woman Voter sector.
These groups have always usually voted mainly for the Democrat Party. The extraordinary social-economic culturally polarized Mess our nation is in on many fronts has Americans coming out now in record droves to vote for MAJOR changes and improvements in our political leadership that will benefit ALL citizens - especially the well-being of the grossly marginalized Average Joe Doe now making up 90% of our working population.
ADDED EXPLANATION OF HISTORICAL OF WHITE, RACIAL, ETHNIC VOTING TRENDS – 2020 ELECTION TURNOUT FORECAST
The CHART II 24% (2000-2018) increase of White eligible voters is mainly from higher the White women voter turnout for Democrats, thus helping Joe Biden. But White gender partisan preferences differ widely. As noted in Chart IV, partisan preference differences are evident across Racial and Ethnic groups, i.e., Black, Hispanic, Asian groups and the White women group benefit Democrats far more than Republicans do. The Black, Hispanic, Asian groups also benefit Democrats far more than White men do. In 2018/2019, the Democratic Party had a wide advantage with 56% of women identified as Democrats versus 38% of women identified as Republicans. In sharp contrast, 42% of men were identified as Democrats while 50% of men were identified as Republicans.
Since 1994, gender and party identification gaps in voter turnouts have grown, but especially during 2018-2020. This is due to women's greater support than men's for policy priorities associated with the Democratic Party, e.g., handling of Covid-19 pandemic, preserving the Affordable Care Act, fighting climate change, addressing discrimination against Black and LGBTQ Americans, implementing gun controls, protecting women's control of their bodies.
In general, experts say that gender role socialization differences make women sensitive and alert to policy issues involving human vulnerability and care. It would be societally healthy if one day Democrat, Republican, Independent male voters could catch up a bit with women’s social well-being sensitive qualities and concerns.
In CHART IV, I noted that the White Voter Group of men does not strengthen the Democrat Voter Turnout as much as Racial and Ethnic groups do. This is due in part to the historical and 2018-2019 weak 42% of the White Voter Group (from Chart IV) favouring Democrats versus 53% favouring Republicans. In my forecast, I increased the White Voter Group number for Democrats to 46% and lowered the number for Republicans to 51%. This reflects my expected increased women vote for Democrats. Despite this, the White male and female forecast 46% vote for Democrats is still below vote percentages of the Black, Hispanic, Asian voter groups and White women group.
In summary, the vast majority of both men and women voters in all Racial and Ethnic groups and White Voter Group will impressively come out in strong support for Joe Biden.
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NOTE: As already mentioned, given the treacherous new wave the Covid-19 pandemic is on and its impact on the economy , my forecast of a Total Voter Turnout of 67% may (hopefully) be much understated.
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