California Free Press

Off the Top of My Head

The Economist Says the US Economy is the Envy of the World: How Dumb Can Half of Americans Be Who Think Trump Would Do a Better Job on the Economy?

by John Lawrence

The October 19, 2024 edition of the Economist headlines that the US economy is the envy of the world. Yet Biden is given hardly any credit for a good economy. Why that is? The only explanation is that at least half of US citizens are terribly ill informed which is another way of saying they're ignorant. Probably because they listen to news sources totally biased against Joe Biden, the Democrats and everything they stand for. The dumbing down of American is exemplified by the fact that at the Republican convention the high point was when Hulk Hogan ripped off his shirt. Dumbing down? To the max. The cultural divide between red states and blues states may be mutating, but, as Fareed Zakaria has characterized it, it is still there. It's a divide between college educated and non-college educated people and it's a divide between men and women. One could even go so far as saying it's a divide between the well-informed and the ignorant or between the smart and the dumb. Trump's cult of personality has drug all of one side of this divide into his camp. Kamala and the Democrats represent the other side of this divide.

The left right political spectrum makes no sense any more. Unless, that is, it can be said that the left represents an intelligent approach to the problems of American society and the right represents a bunch of angry, hateful people. The right, as represented by Trump, seems to be only interested in creating an alternative universe in which facts don't matter and only an entertaining form of spite does. Half of America seems to be complicit in Trump's lies and bellicosity. Half of America seems to be entertained by Trump's antics. Half of America seems to look no farther than a bunch of symbols of patriotism characterized by Trump flags and even Trump God Bless the USA Bibles (made in China).

The American economy has now been characterized as having achieved a "soft landing." "I think we should declare a soft landing now," said James Bullard, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, in an interview with CNN earlier this month. 

American shoppers continued to fuel economic growth in the third quarter with their spending, according to the report. That marked the biggest contributor to GDP growth in the third quarter by far. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic output. Spending accelerated sharply in the third quarter, driven by purchases of big-ticket items, while spending on services eased a bit.

So why are so many voters so concerned with the economy? Why is this the biggest issue for so many voters? The American economy is the envy of the world. However, just because "the economy" is doing so well doesn't mean that all those within it are doing well. We would have to look at the distribution of income and the distribution of wealth. Some well off people could be doing most of the spending while others have very little to spend. 31.3% of the households make less than $50,000 a year. 27.8% make between $50,000 and $100,000, and 40.9% make over $100,000. If a household is making less than $50,000 a year, they are certifiably poor. Those making $50,000 to $100,000 are probably lower middle class. They are those who probably cannot afford to buy a house, but are able to afford to pay rent. 40.9% are making over $100,000. Those making over $100,000 are probably the ones doing all the spending making the economy "the envy of the world". What about the distribution of wealth? The bottom 50% own 3% of the wealth. Obviously they don't own assets such as a house. They are renters and will remain so. Between 50% and 90% of the households own 31% of the wealth so 10% of households own approximately two thirds of the wealth. According to the latest Gallup poll, only about 54% of Americans own any stocks. Meanwhile, only about 63% of Americans own real estate according to the Census Bureau. So income and wealth are not evenly distributed over the American economy, and roughly the bottom 50% of American households have little wealth and meager incomes. The upper 50% are doing quite well, thank you.

Kamala Harris is a pragmatist. She's not ideologically driven. She combines both left and right pragmatically. But primarily she appeals or should appeal to the lower 50% in terms of income and wealth. The upper 50% traditionally vote Republican. However, Trump has attracted a cult following which includes a lot of lower income and lower wealth people. These people are voting against their self interest thinking that Trump is going to help them economically more than Kamala would. Then Kamala is attracting a lot of higher income people who want the US to remain a democracy governed by the rule of law and also want reproductive freedom. That's why traditional voting patterns are somewhat obsolete.

Off the Top of My Head

Rudy Giuliani Was Wrong and He Was Made a Fool Of

by John Lawrence

Why are half the people in the country, in which half the people consider Trump a fascist, still willing to vote for him? Rudy Giuliani said the following at Trump's January 6, 2020 rally:

“Over the next 10 days, we get to see the machines that are crooked, the ballots that are fraudulent, and if we’re wrong, we will be made fools of, but if we’re right, a lot of them will go to jail,” he told the crowd that day. “So, let’s have trial by combat.”

Well, Rudy was wrong, and he was made a fool of. Rudy Giuliani must give control of luxury items and his Manhattan apartment to the Georgia election workers he defamed, a judge has ruled. He must feel pretty foolish by now.

So why are so many people still supporting Trump? Because they are complicit in his lies, and, if he is made a fool of, they all collectively will be made fools of. This is why so many will vote for Trump. They think that by doing so, they will be vindicated and not made fools of. If Trump is elected, history about January 6 will be rewritten. He will free all the "hostages" currently serving jail time because of their role in the insurrection. They will be honored as heroes. All the lawsuits against Trump will magically disappear. All the Trump supporters complicit in his lies will be exonerated. However, if Trump is not elected and Kamala wins, he will face the consequences of several lawsuits and could go to jail. All his supporters collectively, in addition to Rudy Giuliani, will have been made fools of, and none of the January 6 rioters will get out of jail, much less will they be honored.

The 2024 US Presidential election in many ways will be a watershed moment. The whole nation in effect will have to live a lie if Trump is elected, and, if he's not, half the nation who believed in Trump will have been delivered a blow to their collective egos. If Trump is elected, the whole world will be changed. Instead of the US being the world's primary leading power, the one that the whole world looks up to, it will instead be only in it for itself making itself great again by withdrawing from the world community. The American empire with 750 military bases in 80 countries around the world would presumably be shut down and the resultant savings be allocated elsewhere presumably to make America great again.

The American Empire will probably come to an end if Trump is elected. Our European allies wouldn't trust us any more. Vladimir Putin would be vindicated and Ukraine partitioned. Russia would have a free hand in Ukraine. Netanyahu would have a free hand in the Middle East. Republican whip Tom Emmer said on CNN that "the American people are only interested in the economy" or words to that effect. That's all the German people were concerned about in the 1930s, and Hitler delivered on that. I doubt if Trump could be as clever. Trump's tariffs would destroy the American economy and possibly land the whole world in a Depression. The American experiment in democracy would be over. As Benjamin Franklin said, "It's a republic if you can keep it." In order to keep it, Kamala Harris must be elected. The alternative is fascism.

Off the Top of My Head

Kamala Equals Pragmatism

by John Lawrence

Last night on the Town Hall Kamala made it clear that she is a pragmatist. This makes a lot of sense since the old political left right spectrum in and of itself doesn't make sense any more. Take the border for instance. There is a consensus that no one should be coming across the border illegally. Even if applying for amnesty there is a legal and an illegal way to do it. Enough resources need to be applied to the border to make sure that the only option for people wanting to come into the US is the legal option. On this both Democrats and Republicans finally agree. Pragmatism is the penultimate American value. As Kamala said she just wants to "get stuff done."  As to whether or not her administration would be "just a continuance of the Biden administration," what difference does it make? Joe Biden did more for the American economy since Franklin Roosevelt. Most of this was directed towards sorely needed infrastructure improvement. American infrastructure has not kept up with most of the rest of the developed world. Now with the weather disasters caused by climate change, it needs to be hardened and improved that much more. However, all a lot of Americans, including those who can most afford it, seem to be fixated on is the price of groceries.

As for fracking, even under the Biden administration, there has been a capitulation to the fossil fuel industry and a realization that the American people will not sacrifice their lifestyles in order to combat climate change. Therefore, not only fracking but every other concession to fossil fuels has been made in order to keep gas prices low. The fact is that renewable energy production has fallen far short insofar as providing all of our energy needs. The demand for energy has outstripped the increase in renewable energy production. Hence, Kamala, not to mention Joe Biden, is now for fracking. So climate change continues apace. Weather disasters will get worse. Instead of describing floods as "1000 year floods," we should now be describing them as "twice a year floods." Americans seem to accept these weather disasters as long as the Federal government provides the money to rebuild after the disaster takes place. The insurance market is a different story. Private insurance will no longer be available in many regions of the country. Perhaps people who want to relocate out of disaster prone areas should study the insurance maps to see where insurance is available and where it is not, and then make their choices.

Romans were bought off from thinking critically by "bread and circuses." Americans seem to be following the same pattern. Instead of being concerned about climate change and infrastructure development to mitigate against climate change, Americans complain about grocery prices while attending concerts where the ticket prices are in the thousands of dollars. In fact the ones who complain about grocery prices the most are those who can well afford them, those for whom grocery prices are a minimum part of their budgets. Americans have been trained to only think about their own personal economic situation and not about the good of the world, not about helping those whose economic situations are much worse. People is Gaza are starving. People in Sudan are starving. People in Cuba don't have any electricity. UNHCR most recently estimated that, by the end of 2023, for the first time in recorded history, the number of people forcibly displaced is now over 117.3 million, with over 31.6 million refugees under UNHCR's mandate and another 6 million Palestinian refugees. These people have far more to worry about than grocery prices and that's if even groceries are available at all.

As for Kamala, sure her administration would be a continuation of the Biden administration and that's a good thing. Part of Biden's Build Back Better plan was to expand Medicare to provide for in home caregivers. That part was stripped out of the infrastructure bill due to compromises with Republicans. Now this is part of what Kamala wants to do - to pick up pieces previously rejected by Republicans. Of course she can't say that. She will be branded an extreme leftist by Republicans just for wanting to help people and improve the lives of Americans. In the final analysis though, Kamala is a pragmatist just wanting to "get stuff done" while Repiublicans are still down the Qanon rabbit hole palavering about inconsequential things that have nothing to do with anything.

Off the Top of My Head

Which is a Better form of Government: a Democracy or a Meritocracy

by John Lawrence

In a democracy, you get the most popular people in government. In a meritocracy you get the most qualified people in government. Or is there some synthesis that combines the two in a harmonious manner? In a democracy in order to get the best people elected, what is needed is an intelligent and well informed electorate. If what exists is the opposite, the government that results will be second rate at best. Just because politicians are popularly elected does not mean that they are the best people for the job. So what is the alternative? If you could get the best people in government without their being popularly elected, wouldn't this be preferable to a democracy? The problem is, who are the best people, and, even if you could identify them, how do you have a procedure for getting them into government? Would you, for example, consult all the renown political science professors at major universities and ask them all to come up with a slate of people that they think are the most highly qualified for having the highest positions in government? And then winnowing down that list to the required number? That's not a bad idea actually. Highly intelligent people such as college professors might be better choosers than average Joes. However, in a democracy it's the average Joes that make the actual decisions about who gets elected. Or maybe the college professors should choose the nominees who are then voted upon by the electorate.

In China politicians are popularly elected at the local level. Then those politicians select the representatives at the regional level, and then those politicians select the national assembly. So China is a democracy at the local level, and supposedly, a meritocracy at the next two levels. However, the communist party controls the nominations at all levels. In the US the various political parties control the nominations. Usually this boils down to two parties. The all important nominating process determines the quality of those who are elected. So who are the best people to determine who should be nominated for the people to vote on whether for President or for representatives? Obviously, any party or group should be able to nominate anyone. In China no one is likely to be nominated unless they support the principles of the communist party. It's a one party system. The US is basically a two party system because the voting system itself tends to preclude third parties. Neither system really guarantees that the best people, in terms of a meritocracy, are nominated or elected.

Another problem is the nature of the electorate itself. If the voters vote just in terms of their self interest, will the resulting elected body represent a meritocracy? Does the sum of self interests equal the best possible national representative body? In the current US election for President, the chief issue among the voters seems to be the economy. The American economy is currently the envy of every other country in the world. Yet all the voters seem to be concerned about is which nominee will make them personally better off. The voters are oblivious to other issues such as the two wars going on or climate change or the millions of people who are refugees in the world and have nothing. In short they don't seem to be interested in issues that affect the world at large. They are only interested in their own narrow economic interests. This is possibly because of the American ethos which encourages the pursuit of self interest or the pursuit of happiness that Thomas Jefferson wrote into the Declaration of Independence. I would assume that a meritocracy would be equally concerned about the well being of its citizens as well as the well being of the planet earth without which everyone suffers.

Perhaps a group of respected and accomplished citizens whether they be political science professors or others should nominate the representatives who are then voted on by the public. But then the voting system itself would have to be changed from the winner take all majority rule system to a much better system. Even more important is taking the money out of the political process. As it is now, the US is a plutocracy in which Kamala Harris has raised a billion dollars to support her efforts to get elected President. Elon Musk purportedly is giving a million dollars a day to voters who will vote for Trump. Money totally distorts the political process, and self interested voters totally ignore the crucial issues of climate change and world peace. Voter self interest is not enough to give rise to a healthy planet that takes into account the well being of all peoples.

Off the Top of My Head

The US is Similar to Weimar Germany

by John Lawrence

In the 1930s the democratic government in Weimar Germany couldn't get much of anything done. It was largely because of this hapless democratic republic that Germany went for an autocrat that actually got a lot done because an autocracy doesn't have to deal with feckless bureaucrats in a democratic republic. The Weimar Republic came into being after Germany lost World War I. Germany suffered hyper inflation partly as a result of the large reparations Germany was required to pay as a result of having lost the war. Wikipedia says: "The Great Depression of October 1929 severely impacted Germany's tenuous progress; high unemployment and subsequent social and political unrest led to the collapse of Chancellor Hermann Müller's grand coalition and the beginning of the presidential cabinets. From March 1930 onwards, President Paul von Hindenburg used emergency powers to back Chancellors Heinrich Brüning, Franz von Papen and General Kurt von Schleicher. The Great Depression, exacerbated by Brüning's policy of deflation, led to a surge in unemployment. On 30 January 1933, Hindenburg appointed Adolf Hitler as Chancellor to head a coalition government; Hitler's far-right Nazi Party held two out of ten cabinet seats." Inflation? Unemployment? Is there anything in common here with the US circa 2024. Hitler got rid of the reparations and other undesirable terms of the World War I peace settlement. The point is that autocrats can get things done that democratic governments may quibble over due to their not being in agreement as to how to proceed.

One of the impediments to a truly democratic election in the US this year is the same thing that has affected elections since 2000: the electoral college. This makes the US not a true democracy in terms of electing a President. A true democracy would be one in which every vote of every American counted. With the electoral college pretty much only the votes of certain swing states or battleground states mean anything. In fact the winner of the popular vote in 2000, Al Gore and 2016, Hillary Clinton, lost the US Presidency due to the electoral college. What a different country the US would be if those two would have been elected Presidents. There would have been no January 6, for instance. And the US would be much further ahead and in more of a leadership role in terms of climate change. In addition to the electoral college destabilizing the election for President in the US, we have a Congress that is dysfunctional. In the Senate opposing parties keep filibustering legislation efforts by the opposite party, and in the House, they don't seem to be able to agree on a budget until the last minute to keep the government in business.

So autocrats offer a way out of the morass of democratic dysfunction. Hitler did it in 1930s Germany albeit with disastrous results for the Jewish population in particular and the world in general. For democracy to work, voters have to be relatively knowledgeable and sophisticated. Autocrats will misrepresent and lie about the opposing party and the state of the nation. Voters have to have the mental wherewithal to see through the lies and evaluate the situation with some degree of intelligence. Autocrats offer simple solutions to difficult problems. If elected they don't need the agreement of Congress especially if Congress is dysfunctional and can't come to any agreement about anything. They get things done because they don't need agreement from a representational body.Things often function more smoothly because you don't have to compromise between opposing parties. The US has to reform certain aspects of the US system or be in jeopardy of an autocrat taking over. Those aspects in particular are the electoral college and the filibuster.

Off the Top of My Head

Will Freedom of Speech Be the Death Knell of the American Empire?

by John Lawrence

Over the course of history empires have come and gone. The Assyrian Empire, the Persian Empire, the Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire. One of the hallmarks of the American Empire - and the US is a veritable empire - is Freedom of Speech. Freedom of Speech is something that some other countries don't tolerate, but in America it is tolerated even when it provides an avenue for misinformation and disinformation. Social media has just become one big rumor mill that threatens to bring the whole edifice of American democracy down. When Americans can't trust their government and government spokespeople as to what's really happening, we're in big trouble. The recent disasters of Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton have offered ample opportunities for those who spread lies and rumors to operate. Just for comparison, in countries where there is not Freedom of Speech,how much misinformation aimed at the government would be tolerated? Not much. For instance, in Russia, they would be sent to the gulag. In America, Freedom of Speech is causing the levers of government to spin out of control. It's a question of stability verses freedom. China, for instance, values stability more than freedom. In the US there is major instability because unlimited freedom of speech is entertained.

AP News reported: After the deluge, the lies: Misinformation and hoaxes about Helene cloud the recovery,

WASHINGTON (AP) — The facts emerging from Hurricane Helene’s destruction are heartrending: Businesses and homes destroyed, whole communities nearly wiped out, hundreds of lives lost, hundreds of people missing.

Yet this devastation and despair is not enough for the extremist groups, disinformation agents, hucksters and politicians who are exploiting the disaster to spread false claims and conspiracy theories about it and the government’s response.

The question is is unlimited freedom of speech something that should be tolerated at the expense of the stability of American democracy? Obviously, a country like Russia does not tolerate it. What needs to be understood is that throughout most of history it was anathema to criticize a monarch or emperor or autocrat whether in Russia or anywhere else. European history from the demise of the Roman Empire was filled with autocratic monarchs and kings who wouldn't tolerate freedom of speech. Russian history in particular has never known political leaders other than autocrats whether they be Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, Catherine the Great, Stalin or Putin. American democracy is a relatively new experiment brought into existence primarily by the French Enlightenment. Freedom versus stability is something worth considering, and where should be the line between them such that people have as much freedom as possible while not threatening the stability of the empire.

The question is should lies and misinformation and disinformation be tolerated by the American government when unlimited freedom threatens its very demise. January 6 is a testament to the fact that lies almost brought the government down. Would censorship of misinformation and disinformation be something worth considering? Should unlimited freedom of speech be curtailed? It's a sad state of affairs when people are biting the hand that feeds them due to freedom of speech which allows for the lies being perpetrated by those seeking political advantage. Social media needs to be reined in. Censorship is a dirty word but America is tolerating lies and disinformation at its peril. Freedom of Speech does not encompass crying Fire in a crowded theater, but much more than that should be circumscribed.

Off the Top of My Head

Hardening American Infrastructure

by John Lawrence

It's hard not to believe that, if power lines throughout the south had been undergrounded prior to Hurricane Helene, lights, heat, air conditioning and power would still be on. I believe that a massive infrastructure program should be undertaken to mitigate the effects of climate change. Certainly we have seen an increase of massive flash flooding not only from hurricanes but also from regular, everyday rain storms. Cell service could also be maintained if it were provided by satellites instead of ground networks the equivalent of telephone poles. This is even possible today with some cell phones which have an emergency provision that allows communication via satellite when out of cell phone range in emergencies. Well, climate change will bring one emergency after another. If power and communications were hardened, the effects of widespread devastation wrought by hurricanes such as Helene could be mitigated. Undergrounding the electricity grid would prevent the massive power outages that Helene caused.

On June 26, 2024 U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg announced $1.8 billion in awards from the Rebuilding American Infrastructure with Sustainability and Equity (RAISE) discretionary grant program for 148 projects across the country. [This] announcement brings the total amount of Biden-Harris Administration RAISE grants to more than $7.2 billion for over 550 projects across the country. ... “After decades of underinvestment, the condition of America’s infrastructure is now finally getting better instead of worse – and today we proudly announce our support for 148 more projects in communities of every size across the country,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. “Through President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, we’re funding projects across the country to make roads safer, make it easier for people to move around their community, make transportation infrastructure more resilient to extreme weather, and improve supply chains to keep costs down for consumers.” This is a step in the right direction, but only a step. A much bigger effort is necessary to really harden America's infrastructure to mitigate climate change.

Problem is that many voters would resist an increase in their taxes that might be necessary to provide the money for all the work that needs to be done to underground utilities around the country. Americans would always prefer to have the money in their private pockets to spend as they choose rather than to provide the funds necessary for the government to improve infrastructure. That's why the US lags far behind other advanced countries in infrastructure such as high speed trains which are common in many other countries. Americans seem to be willing to rewire and repole electric lines after every storm rather than put the utilities underground so that that would no longer be necessary. Unfortunately, that procedure to "get the power back on" may be more trouble than its worth when the country is faced with massive storm after massive storm. A hardened electric and communications infrastructure would have facilitated relatives getting in touch with each other after Hurricane Helene rather than not knowing for days and even weeks whether or not their relatives were safe. Voters who will not vote to raise taxes to provide a safer and sounder and more advanced infrastructure are not doing themselves any favors in the long run, and the long run is almost here. In terms of climate change, it's already here.

Off the Top of My Head

It's a Once in 500 Year Flood Implies Things Are Going to Get Better When the Truth is Things Are Going to Get Worse.

by John Lawrence

Climate change and the changes in the weather that that implies are not going to ameliorate any time soon. Why? We are still dumping ever increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere with each succeeding year. What that means is that next year's hurricanes will be even worse than this year's hurricanes, not that "biblical" devastation this year will be followed by 500 years of relative peace and calm. Peoples' mindsets and calculations are severely off if they think that, if they can only see their way clear to rebuilding, they can look forward to an era of peace and prosperity. Just the opposite is true. We have made only paltry efforts at getting climate change under control by eliminating the need for fossil fuels. And also many areas struck by hurricanes this year haven't recovered from last year's hurricanes. People need to make rational decisions about where to live. In light of increased flooding and fires. it makes sense not to live in forested areas or near creeks and rivers. Too many towns, villages and cities are located right on creeks and rivers. These are places to get away from. Also get away from living right on the coasts. Coasts are eroding and houses are falling into the oceans. One needs to consider where to live based on climate change. Certain areas are more vulnerable than others, and it makes no sense to automatically rebuild in vulnerable areas as if that was some gauge of American ingenuity and resolve.

As of 2023, the average atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is around 419.3 parts per million (ppm), marking a new record high, with a consistent upward trend observed throughout recent years; this data is based on measurements taken at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, where modern carbon dioxide records began in 1958. Each year the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases. In order to get climate change under control, this number should be coming down. According to recent data, approximately 36 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide are entering the atmosphere annually, with this number continuing to rise year after year due to human activities like burning fossil fuels. We are clearly losing the battle, and in fact politicians in the US have given up trying to limit fossil fuel production and use. There will be no limit on how much energy is consumed because this would limit GDP growth, that all important measure that trumps climate change. And the fact is that renewable energy is not coming online faster than the increase in energy demand. Even if all cars were to be converted to all electric vehicles tomorrow, it would increase the demand for electrical energy which only could be supplied by fossil fuels.

Cars could be considered as just another electrical appliance. There are government incentives to convert to all electric appliances whether it be heat pumps or induction stoves. The electrification of appliances will increase the demand for energy. This energy can't be supplied by renewables because there is just not enough renewable capacity. This is the fundamental dilemma in regard to the reduction of the use of fossil duels and consequently the reduction of carbon dioxide going into the atmosphere. In addition to the technical obstacles limiting our response to climate change, there are the political obstacles. No politician is willing to say that we must do with less in order to fight climate change as we were willing to do, for instance, to fight the Second World War. Telling people to reduce their consumption is a formula for losing political elections. The obvious result is that worsening weather debacles will continue and get worse. Insurance companies will not continue to insure properties located in zones that are subject to weather disasters. FEMA is running out of money. It just does not make any sense to automatically assume that after a disaster, one has to rebuild, that it would be unAmerican not to, a concession of defeat. In many cases it might make more sense to relocate to safer areas. The government could do us all a favor by locating safer living zones and red lining those ares that are prone to climate disasters.