Will There be Another Bin Laden?
by John Lawrence
Pundits worry that Al Qaeda might reconstitute itself now that the Taliban control Afdghanistan. Bin Laden's attack on 9/11 wasn't dependent on geography. It was based on an ingenious, but evil, idea and a plan that could have been developed anywhere. All he needed was a plan and 20 hijackers, 15 of which were Saudi citizens as was bin Laden himself. Bin Laden's plan could have taken root anywhere. He didn't need Afghanistan to formulate it. He just needed a plan that was brilliant enough to fool US intelligence. So whether or not the Taliban will allow terrorists to come into their country is irrelevant. Bin Laden's plan might just as likely have been developed in Saudi Arabia. The key thing is to have people in the service of US intelligence to anticipate and thwart plans developed by the likes of bin Laden who was smart enough to outwit US intelligence.
It was never necessary to invade Afghanistan in order to get bin Laden. US invasions and wars have been fruitless ever since the Korean war which left a nuclear armed dictator in the north. Attacks of the future will not be based on brute force but on intelligent evasions of US intelligence which is exactly what bin Laden did. George W Bush wanted to be a war time President. You don't get to be a war time President by conducting a special ops operation to get bin Laden. You need to invade a country. He invaded two - Iraq and Afghanistan - and both have become unmitigated disasters. Afghanistan alone has cost $2 trillion plus 2400 American lives. Iraq which was an enemy of our enemy, Iran, under Saddam became an ally of Iran under a democratically elected government since the majority of Iraqis are Shiites and Iran is a Shiite country. From a geopolitical perspective turning over Iraq to a Shiite majority controlled government was a huge mistake. Saddam, who was Sunni, was a barrier to Iranian influence in the Middle East.
Now China will become allied with Afghanistan. It practically abuts on Afghanistan. The two countries are only separated by Tajikistan. Reportedly, China has already recognized the Taliban government. NPR reports:
"China has reportedly promised big investments in energy and infrastructure projects, including the building of a road network in Afghanistan and is also eyeing the country's vast, untapped, rare-earth mineral deposits. And Beijing was already reportedly preparing to formally recognize the Taliban before the group seized control of the country."
Afghanistan will become an integral part of its Belt and Road initiative, and make big investments in the country as opposed to the US presence which was supposed to convert the Afghan government into a Little America with western institutions. This has never worked. Indigenous people want their own form of government. The US didn't learn the lesson in Vietnam and Afghanistan is just a repeat of Vietnam albeit taking longer for the final denouement. What the US should do is partner with China to make investments in Afghanistan to bring it into the modern world. We need to partner with China if there is ever to be a solution to the global warming crisis. This might be a start of that relationship which is necessary to save planet Earth. And if we are worried about Afghanistan going back to a medieval society, the best prevention of that scenario is to make investments in Afghanistan's infrastructure including human infrastructure. The Taliban might even welcome that.
