"We're Only going To Be Secure If Everyone Is Secure"
by John Lawrence, December 13, 2020
These words spoken by Fareed Zakaria regarding the pandemic could as well apply to war as well. What a novel idea! If everyone is secure with access to a vaccine, the pandemic will be gone. Perhaps if every nation is secure in their relations with other nations, war will be gone. Of course there will a colossal drop in GDP if the war industry goes away and an increase in unemployment if everyone in the military is civilianized. War and the threat of war is caused by mistrust and insecurity with regards to the intentions and good (or bad) will of other nations towards us. That's why it's important to build friendship and trust between and among nations instead of threatening other nations by economic means such as sanctions or in terms of direct military threats.
Nations who have solved the pandemic problem within their borders are surging back economically. This year the US will decline in GDP relative to last year while China will have positive growth in its economy. While Trump backed out of the Trans-Pacific partnership which would have brought about free trade among 12 countries, China has recently signed the world's largest free trade agreement - the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement - among 15 countries. The signatory states account for 30% of global GDP, larger than NAFTA or the EU. In addition China's massive Belt and Road initiative is an agreement with 70 countries for China to build infrastructure which will enable greater trade relationships among those countries benefiting China the most. Also China owns about $1.1 trillion in US debt. It seems that the only advantage the US has is the fact that the dollar is the world's reserve currency. But that situation is subject to change especially as nations find ways to outmaneuver US sanctions. It seems that China is becoming the world's preeminent nation not by virtue of its military prowess but by virtue of its aggressive trade and infrastructure building policies. Washington has not been able to respond except by threats and sanctions. Sanctioning Tik Tok and Huawei is a pathetic response to China's bid for world leadership.
Vaccine development for COVID-19 is a massive cooperative effort among scientists and companies throughout the world. Most of the PPE used in America was manufactured abroad. Global supply chains have been absolutely crucial in supplying the US with needed products which aren't manufactured here. One of the hallmarks of capitalism is free trade. It represents the idea of free markets applied to international trade. So while China has exemplified leadership in increasing free trade, the US under Trump has backed off from free trade, invoked protectionism, and hence negated its free market capitalist principles. However, that's about to change under a Biden administration. We can expect a lot more global cooperation and diplomacy rather than the bullying policies represented by Pompeo and Trump. It's especially important now that global warming is a looming global threat. Biden wants a $1.7 trillion deal to combat global warming.
China, the world's largest emitter of carbon, has vowed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Joe Biden has vowed to achieve carbon neutrality in the US, the world's second largest emitter, by 2050. The EU has agreed to spend a half a trillion dollars on global warming projects. If all these massive commitments are actually followed through on, the world might limit the increase in global warming to 2.1 degrees Celsius which is about what they had agreed on in the Paris Accords was necessary to prevent disaster. A lot will depend on whether Biden can get his programs through Congress. If the Senate is controlled by Republicans, all bets are off. That is why the run-offs in Georgia for two Senate seats are so important.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/fareed-zakaria/
