Trump's Purported Coup d'Etat
by John Lawrence, November 12, 2020
Trump's path to a second term goes through the Courts and the Republican state legislatures. It is up to the state legislatures to choose the electors who cast the state's electoral votes. So far they have always chosen those electors that are committed to cast their votes for the candidate that won the popular vote. But, as the song says: "It ain't necessarily so." It is conceivable that Trump could win the electoral votes in states in which Biden won the popular vote. Take Georgia for example. Here's how it would work. The Republican Secretary of State decides that there will be a hand recount of all 5 million votes cast in Georgia. That takes time. If the hand recount doesn't get done by November 20, Trump's lawyers could step in and ask the Supreme Court, which is controlled by conservative justices three of whom Trump appointed himself, to decide the election. This is not unprecedented. In 2000 George W Bush asked the Supreme Court to stop the recount process in Florida which they did costing Al Gore the election. If the recount had continued Gore, who won the popular vote not only in Florida but in the US generally, would have been elected. If something like this happens this year, this would give Georgia's 16 electoral votes to Trump instead of Biden.
However, Georgia's 16 electoral votes would not be enough to change the results of the election. Trump's lawyers would have to do the same process in a number of other states as well. In particular they would have to overturn the results in Pennsylvania with its 20 electoral votes. Pennsylvania, it is to be noted, also has a state legislature controlled by Republicans so it is not inconceivable. Currently Trump has 217 electoral votes including Alaska. He is winning in North Carolina with its 15 electoral votes so let's give him that. If he could use the courts and the state legislatures to flip Georgia and Pennsylvania, he would then have another 36 electoral votes for a total of 268, still not the 270 required to win the election. He needs another 2 electoral votes. Where could he find them? Let's see. Arizona's state legislature is controlled by Republicans. Let's assume Trump can do the same thing there. That would give him another 11 electoral votes bringing him to 279. Ipso facto Trump wins the election.
When the framers of the U.S. Constitution outlined the workings of the electoral college system, they didn’t specify how presidential electors should or must be chosen, leaving it up to the various state legislatures to each decide for themselves how to appoint their electors. However, the courts have decided that the states can't change the way they choose their electors after an election. This would throw the whole process into chaos. But chaos is precisely what we have now with Trump refusing to concede the election. Conservative talk show host Mark Levin has tweeted the following:
REMINDER TO THE REPUBLICAN STATE LEGISLATURES, YOU HAVE THE FINAL SAY OVER THE CHOOSING OF ELECTORS, NOT ANY BOARD OF ELECTIONS, SECRETARY OF STATE, GOVERNOR, OR EVEN COURT. YOU HAVE THE FINAL SAY -- ARTICLE II OF THE FED CONSTITUTION. SO, GET READY TO DO YOUR CONSTITUTIONAL DUTY
— Mark R. Levin (@marklevinshow) November 5, 2020
So if Trump and his allies can sow enough confusion into the process of determining certain states' election results, for example, calling for recount after recount, it's conceivable that Trump's lawyers will then ask the Supreme Court to intervene, and they might do the same thing they did in Bush v. Gore in 2000 and award the election to Trump. They might go even further and decide that, since the US Constitution does not specify that state legislatures must pick a slate of electors dedicated to the popular vote, they can decide for any candidate they please. This would effectively make Trump dictator because no one could ever trust election results again. Trump has a considerable base of support in the American electorate and could rely on the fact of this tremendous public support although half the nation at least wants Biden to be the next President, not Trump. After all Biden won the popular vote by over 5 million votes. But Hillary won the popular vote in 2016 and Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000. Having delegitimized the democratic process with his refusal to concede among other things, Trump hardly needs widespread skepticism about the electoral college to sow doubt about the voting process itself. Many people feel that the electoral college should be abolished and that the President should be elected by popular vote. This is only the latest blow to the American political system which is based on the wisdom of a few white men and their understanding of how things should be over 200 years ago. Yet the process can not be changed without three quarters of the states agreeing to a Constitutional amendment.
