Whither Goeth the Republican Party?
by John Lawrence, November 11, 2020
It may be whimsical for me, a Democrat, to speculate about the future of the Republican party, but I am a speculator at heart and curious to see how all this plays out after the demise of Donald Trump. The Republican party, as it exists today, is an unholy alliance of Trump's base - mainly white supremicists - and the financial elite, the wealthy. The party could split in two which would result in Trump's cult like following which I've labeled the WPP (white people's party) and an assortment of principled and unprincipled conservatives. The unprincipled conservatives are only in it for the money and the power. Their problem is that they are a small minority while the WPP represents the vast majority of Republicans.
But let's examine for a moment what a principled conservative represents: fiscal prudence and propriety. A principled conservative wants government to only spend the money that it takes in in taxes and no more. In other words principled conservatives don't want the government to run deficits and further increase the national debt. Given that there are still decisions to be made about what to spend the money on, that is also what conservatives need to be concerned about. Here, in the past, conservatives have mainly made the wrong decisions. In short they've mainly decided to spend it on the military instead of on the well being of the American people. This has clearly been a major mistake on the disbursement of government monies when you consider that in the last 50 years the US has engaged in two disastrous wars - the Vietnam and the Iraq wars. These wars have involved duplicity and mendacity on behalf of two US Presidents - Lyndon Johnson and George W Bush - not a particularly good track record. The money might have been better spent. Principled conservatives, who want taxpayer money spent wisely, should be more alarmed.
So going forward I see the role of principled conservatives as being making sure that the government spends its money wisely. We have seen that the issue of deficit spending is moot. If the government can add a trillion dollars to the deficit (and hence the debt) to give tax breaks to the rich, as Trump and formerly Reagan have done, and government can spent a few trillion bailing out the too big too fail banks with its continued policy of quantitative easing, it has been made clear that deficits don't matter as Modern Monetary Theorists maintain. The US has a sovereign currency and the Federal Reserve can print as much money as it wants although this power should not be used frivolously for a number of reasons. But there is much flexibility here. So if the money is available for government to spend, the question for principled conservatives is how to spend that money wisely not how little to spend. What is clear is that spending a trillion dollars a year on the military is not spending money wisely. What's also clear is that taxation policy is necessary to redress the balance between rich and poor because economic inequality is getting out of hand. This also means that there will be less and possibly no reliance on deficit spending at all.
The wise use of government money at this point in time is exactly what is contained in Joe Biden's agenda. Addressing global warming by creating green infrastructure as well as repairing and rebuilding existing infrastructure is of paramount importance. Mitigating the effects of global warming by undergrounding utilities so that violent storms don't consistently take down the power grid is important. Creating more renewable energy installations and power plants as well as modernizing the power grid is important. Repairing roads, bridges, levees and dams is important. More dams should be built in areas where considerable rainfall is experienced. This can prevent flooding and prevent potable water just going to runoff. It also generates renewable power. Wise use of government money would also be relief of student loan debtors since this would also mean that money would be in private hands which then would go into expanding GNP. Building a reasonable national health care system which contains the runaway costs of drugs and hospitalizations would be a wise use of money that conservatives should be in favor of. Other countries have better health outcomes at half the cost of the US fragmented system. Conservatives are concerned about getting the most bang for the buck. Currently, that's not the case with our health care system. Spending government money on virus research and pandemic prevention should be an obvious investment at this time.
Some people think that Trump will continue to be a major player in Republican politics, but I don't. First of all he will lose a lot of followers just because he will be proven to be a loser. Their whole ethos is based on winning and power, and, when it becomes clear that Trump has neither power nor has he won, many of his followers will turn on him. Secondly, an out of power Trump will have to face numerous lawsuits over his taxes and his debts. The hundreds of millions of debt which Trump is personally liable for (no liability limitations for this debt) cannot be paid so he will go down as not only a loser but a deadbeat debtor with millions in tax liabilities as well, not to mention lawsuits over his sexual peccadilloes. So I suspect that the thankfully shortlived Trump era will be soon over and at last sanity will be restored to the White House. Biden has a long road ahead of him restoring the respect and prestige that the US formerly had with regard to the other nations of the world, and I think he will make much progress in this area. Rejoining the Paris Accords on global warming and the JPCOA will be the first steps.
