The Democratic Debate
by John Lawrence
We'll see how Iowa turns out. It should be possible to make some kind of prognostication soon. It'll be either Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren in the poll position. I don't think the billionaires will make it nor do I think Pete Buttigieg will. You have to pair either Bernie or Elizabeth with an African-American of the opposite sex, namely either Corey or Kamala. Trump will run on the economy, but also appeal to his base on the miles of wall he's completed. If the economy holds up, Trump will be in a formidable position - lowest unemployment in 50 years and highest stock market. Those individuals with regular jobs, 401ks and employer sponsored health insurance will probably vote for Trump as will all people working for the military-industrial complex or associated with the military in any way.
Who will vote for the Democrats are people with a ton of student loan debt, part time jobs and little or no health insurance. Also people concerned about the environment and climate change. Younger people, millennials and others not fully vested in the "system" will vote for a Progressive Democrat. African Americans, Latinos and other minorities will vote Democratic. The demographics are changing. Younger people are losing out while older people have had their real estate and stock market bubbles run up. They are vested in the system.
Trump may choose not to debate in which case advertising might be a significant factor. Unless the economic status quo changes between now and the election or Trump goes off the deep end and starts a war, his chances of being reelected are pretty good. The Democrats are very idealistic, and their ideas deserve to be manifested. Changes need to be made. However, if there are enough people who are not marginalized by the economy but are in the mainstream, they may not want any big changes. They would probably vote for Trump. It'll come down to whose demographic wins out: the marginalized or the mainstreamers.
