MUST BE SEEN In Context Of GERMANY’s EXCELLENT PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION SYSTEM
by Frank Thomas
The recent German elections show that, since the arrival of over 1.2 million refugees (mostly from Syria) in 2015 and 2016, Germany is indeed changing to the right – but I certainly would not say in a radical or unhealthy way. This is because EU economies and political proportional representation systems, like Germany’s, generally combine stable elements of basic social needs and safety nets with individual/corporate capitalistic initiatives and market mechanisms. Rules are enacted and enforced to insure fair play and social harmony.
In the German elections, the CDU/CSU centrist coalition together with the SPD socialist party went from a very high 502 Parliamentary seats or 79.7% of the 630 seats, BEFORE the elections, to a lower total of 399 seats or 56.3% of 709 Parliamentary seats now. In light of the SPD’s decision not to join Merkel’s CDO/CSU centrist party group in a new coalition government, Merkel must find a way to unite, for example, with the Green left of center party and FDP right of center party to form a reasonably centrist coalition government. Although the rising AfD rather conservative nationalistic party won 12.6% of the total vote for all parties, making it the 3rd largest party followed closely by the FDP party with 10.7% of the total vote, Merkel will not be forming a coalition government with this far right party.
Forming a governing coalition will be no easy task. But Merkel will respect the clear voter message of getting disciplined control of and cutting back drastically on her open-door immigration policy. The extraordinary extent and speed at which the flood of refugees have entered Germany under Merkel’s leadership is creating considerable societal strains, e.g. severe problems of assimilation as well as fears of expanding criminality and terrorist acts, and a watering down of the German culture. Very understandable and natural concerns, in my view.
But I don’t think Germany is heading into a radical, socially-polarizing, ultra-right transition under their multi-party, proportional representation system. This is because as noted earlier, there are many structural “checks and balances” inherent in the European political multi-party, proportional representation constitutional structures. Far more than the paralyzed two-party Mess the US is trapped in where “social polarization” is evolving on a scale and depth many, many times more alarming and potentially dangerous to our democracy than most EU countries.
Before the recent elections, the German Parliament consisted of 630 seats. It now consists of 709 seats. The Parliament in principle is set at a basic level of 598 seats. Each voter makes TWO votes in the voting booth – the “first vote” is for a directly elected district candidate. A candidate who wins a “plurality” of a district’s votes automatically gets a seat in the German Parliament, similar to our “winner-take-all” election system. The “second vote” is for a party. After tallying the party votes, party officials select candidates from lists of well-qualified candidates. The ultimate number of candidates so selected is based on the percentage of total “second votes” won by each party.
But German voters often “split” their “first vote” and “second vote,” i.e., their two votes are seldom for the same party. So sometimes a party via the directly elected district candidates in the “first vote” wins more Parliament seats than entitled to based on the total “second vote” percentage split among all the parties. If this occurs, the Parliament is expanded with extra seats so that the total “second seat” vote percentage split among parties is retained.
This unique dual-voting approach forms the basis of Germany’s excellent Parliamentary proportional representation system. And that’s why the Parliament seats increased from 630 seats to 709 seats in recent elections. If all voters vote for the same party with their “first vote” and their “second vote,” this would of course lead to no change in the 598 basic level of Parliamentary seats.
All-in-all, it’s a consummately broad voter inclusive, democratic election process that mirrors the approaches of most other EU countries. For example, the Netherlands has its own very democratic version of a multi-party, proportional representation system. After elections six months ago, the country is finally near agreement on a new governing coalition comprising four parties! This compares to Merkel’s big challenge now to form a working government coalition of three parties.
The winning results of Germanys six main party groupings account for 94.9% of the total Parliamentary votes (and seats in Parliament). The percentage split of total votes among parties is: Merkel’s CDU/CSU centrist party (33% of vote); SPD socialist party (20.5% of vote); AfD far right party (12.6% of vote); FDP right of center party (10.7% of vote); Die Linke centrist party (9.2% of vote); the Green left of center party (8.9% of vote); and all other (5.1% of vote).
So the FDP right of center and AfD far right of center parties now have 23.3% of total votes; the CDU/CSU and Die Linke centrist parties have 42.2% of total votes; the SPD and Green left of center parties have 29.4% of total party votes.
While the election results indeed show a bigger movement to the right, it’s not the radical, alarming change that’s now being hyped by some journalists and the media. Under Germany’s “proportional representation” system, there remains a more than adequate number of cool-headed centrist and left of center parties to counterbalance any radical or destabilizing policy moves by, for example, the larger conservative nationalist party, AfD.
Frank Thomas, The Netherlands, September 24, 2017
