from the State Column, November 18, 2011
According to the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is “virtually certain” that the 21st century will see more hot day and fewer cold days. The IPCC report provides a wealth of information on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather as well as ways in which organizations and communities can “reduce exposure and vulnerability” to extreme weather events.
A fact sheet, released by the IPCC, outlines the key information contained in the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. The most important piece of information provided by the IPCC report is that natural climate change and human-generated climate change have a direct impact on the “frequency, intensity, spatial extent, and duration of some extreme weather and climate events.”
Furthermore, the IPCC reports suggests that communities and organizations can alleviate the impact of extreme weather and climate events through “adaption to climate change” and a thorough understanding of how “different development pathways” can determine an organization or community’s vulnerability to extreme weather events.
According to the IPCC fact sheet, the primary theme of the IPCC report is that “further increases” in extreme weather and climate events are “projected” to take place in the 21st century.
Qin Dahe, an IPCC co-chair, said that “there is high confidence that both maximum and minimum daily temperatures have increased on a global scale due to the increase of greenhouse gases.” Dahe went on to posit that “changes in other extremes, such as more intense and longer droughts are observed in some regions, but the assessment assigns medium confidence due to a lack of direct observations and a lack of agreement in the available scientific studies. Confidence in any long-term trend in tropical cyclone intensity, frequency or duration is assessed to be low.” Dahe’s comments come from an IPCC press release.
Another IPCC co-chair confirms that heatwaves are likely to be exacerbated by climate change in the 21st century. “For the high emissions scenario, it is likely that the frequency of hot days will increase by a factor of 10 in most regions of the world,” Thomas
Stocker said. “Likewise, heavy precipitation will occur more often, and the wind speed of tropical cyclones will increase while their number will likely remain constant or decrease,” Thomas added.
Despite the seriousness of the IPCC’s findings, another co-chair explains that communities and organizations can mitigate the impact of extreme weather events in a number of ways. “Nevertheless, there are many options for decreasing risk. Some of these have been implemented, but many have not. The best options can provide benefits across a wide range of possible levels of
climate change,” co-chair Vicente Barros said.
According to the Telegraph, the IPCC dealt with an onslaught of criticism after suggesting that the Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035. The latest IPCC reports is careful to call various scenarios “likely.” However, the IPCC report calls an increase in heatwaves “virtually certain” in the 21st century.
The negative backlash from the incident or “Himalaya-gate” stemmed from a 2007 IPCC report that said: “Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate.” In response to “Himalaya-gate,” India’s Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh called the 2007 IPCC report “alarmist.”
Expect the IPCC to feel the heat in the coming days as climate change skeptics mull over the IPCC’s findings. However, there are environmental experts who believe that this report should be taken seriously. “This report should be a wake-up call to those that believe that climate change is some distant issue that might impact someone else,” Jake Schmidt of Natural Resources Defense Council said as quoted by the Guardian.
“The report documents that extreme weather is happening now and that global warming will bring very dangerous events in the future. From the report you can see that extreme weather will impact everyone in one way or another. This is a window into the future if our political response doesn’t change quickly,” Schmidt added. Schmidt’s comments were made prior to the release of the IPCC report.
The United Nations Climate Change Conference is scheduled to take place in Durban, South African in November. Leaders in government, academia and in international organizations will discuss the Kyoto Protocol, the Bali Action Plan and the Cancun Agreements.
