by Steve Unger
Published on the Range Voting Blog, September 23, 2010
The problem with our economy today is not with the stock market or
with businesses in trouble. Banks, Wall Street, even General Motors
are all doing fine. The only glitch is that, except for the financial
upper crust, Americans, ranging from farm workers to engineers, are
having trouble finding jobs. Many of those who succeed are not
employed at good jobs doing what they are educated for, but are
finding part-time work of a dead-end type.
The reason is not hard to find. Manufacturing, traditionally the
source of the best jobs for most people, is being phased out in our
country. US companies are importing products made elsewhere (mainly in China) or setting up manufacturing plants in other countries. Try and
find an American-made product in a department store. In addition, over a million people, mostly from poor countries, enter the country
annually, legally or illegally. They are willing to work at menial
jobs for very low wages and under miserable working conditions. Americans who would normally be doing that sort of work,
mainly poor people themselves, must either accept the same conditions or join the unemployed. Under programs such as H-1B, temporary work visas are given to engineers, computer programers, nurses, etc. They effectively displace Americans, and, since they will work hard for less pay, lower the incomes of those not displaced.
Suppose the US abandoned its slogan-based trade policy and restricted
imports of goods produced by grossly underpaid people, or from
countries that imposed all manner of barriers to imports from the
US. (The changes would not affect such imports as Japanese cars, or
Danish wind turbines, which are produced by reasonably paid workers.)
It would have a major impact on imports from China, the source of most US consumer goods. We need not worry about retaliation, since exports to China constitute a small fraction of imports. What would happen to our economy?
Suddenly there would be a need to manufacture electric drills,
hammers, sneakers, microwave ovens, DVD players, dehumidifiers... the list is endless. Companies previously producing such items would start rehiring skilled workers, new companies would start up and compete for able people. Former shop foremen would quit their jobs as Walmart clerks to get back into industry. There would be a need for
construction workers of all types to refurbish abandoned factory
buildings and build new ones. In agriculture, it would no longer be
possible to get the work done by impoverished people from south of our border. Wages would have to be boosted and working conditions improved (perhaps more machinery used) so as to attract American workers. In short there would be a major economic boom, not limited to financial manipulators, but having a major effect on ordinary Americans.
This would lead to increases in retail prices, but greatly increased
income would easily compensate. It would not be practical to do this
all overnite. A plan would have to be devised to phase in the
changeover smoothly over a period of years. Of course there are many
details to work out, and these are important. Also, this approach does
not rule out additional measures to rejuvenate our economy. Immigration should be reduced to a minimum, Programs H-1B
visas and the like should be ended. A large-scale federal effort to
repair and enlarge our degraded infrastructure (deteriorating bridges,
inadequate sewage treatment facilities, etc.) and to jump-start green
energy projects would, in addition to serving important needs, also
get a lot of people back to doing decent work and also stimulate large
and small businesses. Terminating our massive war expenditures would
do much to restore order to the federal budget.
I've written in more detail about the job situation and about
immigration in essays accessible at
http://www1.cs.columbia.edu/~unger/articles/jobs.html
http://www1.cs.columbia.edu/~unger/articles/immigration.html
http://www1.cs.columbia.edu/~unger/articles/arizona.html
Steve
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Stephen H. Unger
Professor Emeritus
Computer Science and Electrical Engineering
Columbia University
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