John,
Future projected trend information on net inflows/outflows should be readily available, also for the first 6 months of 2010. Alan Simpson's Committee has a huge study of the Social Security Trust Fund in their hands now, a copy of which he promised to give th journalist asking good questions in the video you just posted.
In answer to your question, NO it is definitely not a fixed given that more money is going out than is coming in in 2010 and over the next 10 years. In 2009, the Trust Fund surplus was $100 billion based on $1,049 billion funds coming in and invested and $950 billion going out by redeeming securities that have reached maturity.
The Trust Fund Surplus exceeded $100 billion in tough recession year 2009 (equal to the average surplus per year over the past 25 years), thereby increasing the accumulated Surplus to $2.5 Trillion. Large negative outflows are expected to become a more serious pressure starting in 2020-25 with peaking in older age group above 65 living on the average much longer by 2025.
The Netherlands has just solved this future problem (projected size of older group above 65 is relatively higher in Europe than in U.S.) by major parties recently reaching agreement to increase age for start of benefits from 65 to 67... with certain exceptions for disabilities and people who have done physically straining work. A few other European countries are setting the qualification age for benefits even higher.
Any U.S. negative outflow from money coming in and securities redeemed at maturity simply reduces existing +$2.5 Trillion Surplus built up over the last 30 years. Experts say that theTrust Fund will not disappear assuming worst scenarios until around 2037 as securities can be redeemed before maturity to cover shortfalls for many years. And Paul Krugman even says this doom scenario might well never occur. but, unfortunarely like all experts, he gives no clear explanation WHY?
So, as you are suggesting, there's a serious public need for simply charted clarity and explanations of Social SecurityTrust Fund financial dynamics for past 30 years and next 30 years under 2 or 3 scenarios before any changes to current program. Absent a not-too-difficult to understand transparency of what has and will be happening, this whole subject is a political lightening rod of confusion, manipulation, and distortion in the U.S. ... like reporting of most data is concerning Federal government social-net programs and budgets.
Best,
Frank
