California Free Press

Off the Top of My Head

Political Meritocracy vs Democracy

by John Lawrence

China's system of government can be characterized as political meritocracy what author Daniel Bell (The China Model. Political Meritocracy and the Limits of Democracy) refers to as "democracy at the lower levels of government and political meritocracy at higher levels of government, with political experimentation in between." While China has a democracy at the local political levels, at the intermediate and higher levels of government those leaders are elected by the bureaucracy at the next lower level. In the US leaders at the highest level are elected by "the people." This has the danger that "an elected leader without any political experience (e.g., Donald Trump) could rise to the top (and make many beginner’s mistakes), an elected leader would have to spend valuable time raising funds and giving the same speech over and over again, instead of thinking about policy, and an elected leader would be more constrained by short-term electoral considerations at the expense of long-term planning for the good of the political community and the rest of the world."

It's clear that Donald Trump is not interested in " long-term planning for the good of the political community and the rest of the world." In fact in order to deal with climate change which Trump considers a hoax, long term planning would be required. Just as well, Trump is not concerned with "the rest of the world," only with the US. This liability of democracy at the highest level seems to make China's system at least more intriguing. It is based on a 2000 year history of Confucianism which required government leaders to be selected based on a civil service examination with only those with the highest results being given the highest levels in the bureaucracy. Men of the highest intellectual ability and moral character were to be chosen for the highest positions in the Chinese government. As Daniel Bell states:

... the ideal of political meritocracy has a long history in China. More than 2,500 years ago, Confucius defended the view that exemplary people[ junzi 君子] have superior ability and virtue (as opposed to the earlier view that junzi have aristocratic family backgrounds), and since then Chinese intellectuals have argued over which abilities and virtues matter for government, how to assess those abilities and virtues, and how to institutionalize a political system that aims to select and promote public officials with superior abilities and virtues. It is no exaggeration to say that the ideal of political meritocracy was taken for granted in most political debates in Chinese history. And China’s two-thousand-year experience with a complex bureaucratic system can be viewed as a constant effort to institutionalize the ideal of political meritocracy.

Political meritocracy in China has similar drawbacks to economic and political meritocracy in America. Those who aren't in the top echelons resent the fact that elitists have all the political power and in America the economic power as well. In fact in America it is said that IQ plus effort = outcomes in the system. In the US this has led to a backlash among non-elites with the result that people like Donald Trump are elected to the highest political positions. What is important in today's world is to assess the differences between the Chinese and American political systems realistically in terms of the strengths and weaknesses of each without rushing to judgement that one system is better than the other or that these two countries which represent different systems should automatically be enemies locked in unmitigated combat with each other over which system is superior.

Coexistence should be the name of the game. It's just possible that at some future date another country which combines the best features of both systems might come to be a world leader. In fact the most democratic way to elect a national assembly is sortition which is a completely random way of choosing a national body. In this way both elitists and non-elitists are elected in proportion to their levels in society at large. The other advantage is this could be done with absolutely no financial campaign expenditures because there would be no campaigns. Talk about taking the money out of politics; there is no better system. Of course I'm not suggesting that this would be the only national assembly. A bicameral system could have another House selected by a different means - maybe meritocratic.

Off the Top of My Head

Republicans Will Terminate the Filibuster

by John Lawrence

The filibuster is the only tool Democrats have left to impede Trump's absolute power. Therefore, they will end it which they can do by simple majority rule although the arcane rules of the Senate are debatable whether or not this can happen. I predict that the Republicans will find a way around these arcane rules and end the filibuster by majority rule. This gives Trump effectively the power of a dictator since he then will control all branches of government including the Supreme Court. He not only will be dictator on Day 1, but at least till the next election cycle in 2 years. The Congressional Research Service reports Eight Mechanisms to Enact Procedural Change in the U.S. Senate. Republicans will use some combinbation of these to end the filibuster at least for as long as they control all three branches of the government and the Supreme Court. If they are clever, which I suspect they are, they will do it in such a way that as soon as Democrats control the Senate, the filibuster will automatically come back into effect. Most of the mechanisms require two thirds or three fifths Senate approval. However one of them seemingly does not.

5. Establish a new precedent. Senate procedural actions are also regulated by parliamentary precedent. Rulings of the presiding officer on the application of chamber rules are generally subject to an appeal to the full Senate. In most procedural circumstances, appeals are debatable. This fact operates as a significant bar to creating new precedent by appeal. When appeals are made in procedural circumstances that render them nondebatable, however—for example, after cloture has been invoked or when the appeal is made in relation to a nondebatable motion—no supermajority to limit debate is needed, and a majority can overrule the chair and establish a new understanding of what a Senate rule means or how it is applied.

The above consists of so much gobbledygook that I'm sure that a determined majority of Republicans could suspend whatever the rules may be in order to get whatever Trump wanted passed passed. Democrats would unquestionably use the filibuster every chance they got unless the filibuster was rendered moot by a change in the Senate rules which are so arbitrary to begin with. I'm sure that majority rule in the Senate would come in handy when, for instance, Trump wanted to change the laws regarding asylum or abortion at the national level or even abolishing the Environmental Protection Agency or the Department of Education. As Elon Musk slashes and burns many jobs and even whole departments in the Federal government, Trump would have to have both Houses of Congress on his side. So it would be necessary to hamstring the Democrats by making the filibuster rule impotent.

The filibuster can be eliminated by a simple majority rule vote. Eliminating the filibuster is simple. All it takes to eliminate the filibuster is a simple majority vote in the Senate — and this can be done at any time. Senate Democrats can introduce a big package of democracy reforms, like DC statehood and expanding voting rights. Mitch McConnell, the self-proclaimed “grim reaper” of progressive legislation, then initiates a filibuster. Democrats can then hold a vote, and with just 50 votes eliminate the filibuster and prevent McConnell from vetoing the legislation.

Well, now McConnell is gone, but the issue remains the same. Republicans have already elimiinated the filibuster for issues they care about - mainly tax cuts. These can be done in such a way that Democrats can't filibuster them. Now since Republicans are the majority in both Houses of Congress, they can enact any legislation they want by simply eliminating the filibuster so that Democrats can't stop their proposed legislation. Democrats will have to wait until they control the Senate before they can do the same in order to get their legislation like gun control and other progressive legislation passed.

Many Trump voters say they voted for him because they voted for change. Now that they are about to get it, it remains to be seen how well they will like it. Stay tuned.

Off the Top of My Head

The Left-Right Political Spectrum is Irrelevant

by John Lawrence

The spectrum that is relevant is an Up-Down spectrum with Up representing rationality and down representing emotionalism. For instance, Trump voters were generally ignorant regarding the issues especially at a level deeper than sloganeering. To talk about policy points is something they're not interested in or knowledgeable about. Kamala's policy positions were ones that favored the working class. $25,000 down payments for first time home buyers. Tax breaks for 100 million people etc. $6000 child care allowance. She enumerated some specifics. Yet it has been reported that Trump was more popular with the working class. It doesn't make sense in terms of a left-right political spectrum. Trump's supporters were basically ignorant of what left or right positions were or if Kamala's specifics were more credible than Trump's vague assertions. They made their choice based on feelings. Now Democrats are wondering how they can appeal to the working class. Well, how the Republicans did it was like the Romans did it. Bread and Circuses only with Trump it was the promise of bread but actual circuses which were what his rallies were all about. No need to talk about actual policy positions like Kamala did. Trump just made blanket statements like whatever it is that ails you, I will fix it. Just a statement, not a policy position. No need to talk about how he would fix it.

The problem for Democrats is that they represent the Up side of the political spectrum. Republicans represent the down side. The Up side usually will not lie in representing their positions. The Down side has no problem with lying or engaging in conspiracy theories or any other mechanism in order to gain power. Democrats will not usually stoop to that level so that they are stuck when it comes to getting some of those working class voters back. It's a cultural thing. The down culture is about the down side of American culture which is violence, vulgarity and disingenuousness typified by Donald Trump and Hulk Hogan. It's hard to visualize that Democrats would have Hulk Hogan ripping off his shirt at their convention. So the Democrats are in general high minded, the Republicans low minded. So where are the majority of the American electorate? More aligned with Hulk Hogan than Kamala Harris. More aligned with whomever can entertain them the most than with whomever has their best interests at heart. Americans, at least a majority of them, got the President they deserved. To get some Republican voters back Democrats would have to descend to levels on the Up-Down spectrum that they would be uncomfortable with in ethical terms.

So people on the up side of the political spectrum have some sense of ethics, integrity and rationality. People on the down side would be averse to rationality, only concerned about feelings and susceptible to conspiracy theories and being conned and duped. They would vote against their interests as long as it "felt right." A democracy needs to have an informed, rational and concerned electorate. If the majority of voters are only concerned about how a politician makes them feel, they will elect politicians who not only are not the best for them personally but are not the best for the country or the world in general. When the electorate supports a culture of violence and vulgarity, it makes sense that they would elect vulgar and prone to violence politicians. Policy positions have no bearing whether they are left or right on the political spectrum. The only meaningful political spectrum at this point is up-down. When Trump says, "I will solve your problems," true believers believe it without Trump having to spell out an exact policy that would accomplish that goal. When Kamala spells out an exact policy, true believers say that they don't believe that that policy would work. It's the difference between believing something no matter how irrational and not believing something that is actually rational. American voters are not asking what they can do for their country but what can their country do for them, and then making the wrong choice.

Off the Top of My Head

Why Trump Won

by John Lawrence

Trump has campaigned non-stop for the last 4 years. There have been a series of hundreds that began in the summer of 2015. These rallies have emulated Hitler's rallies at Nuremberg in the 1930s in terms of their symbols - flags, hats, merchandise, patriotic music. The Nazi Party Rallies, held in Nuremberg from 1933 to 1938, served most of all to stage-manage the image of the regime and Adolf Hitler, and to theatricalize the racially rooted myth of the "community of the Volk" and the population's backing of the war. Nazi symbols such as the swastika and the formal symbol of the party, the Parteiadler, an eagle atop a swastika and many others are comparable to all the Trump flags, the Trump merchandise and the Trump symbols which seemed to be everywhere creating a festive atmosphere similar to that created by the Nazi party. At Trump rallies they hired huge cranes to hoist the American flag high above the rally. Trump's plane with his name emblazoned on the side stood at the ready for all to see. President Biden and Kamala Harris had nothing to compare with all the Trump flags, Trump symbols and Trump merchandise which for years dominated the mass media. Each rally was a show, an extravaganza which aimed to demonstrate the power and ubiquitousness of the Trump name. Each outrageous Trump utterance, especially the gaffes, dominated the news and the talk shows. Democrats had nothing that could compare in terms of showmanship, stage management and image.

Trump and the Nazis appealed to feelings, especially feelings of patriotism. The Democrats appealed to reason. The appeal to feelings won much as that kind of appeal won for the Nazi party. The appeal to feelings won out over the fact that Trump was a convicted felon who tried to overthrow the American Constitution much as Hitler won out despite the beer hall putsch which landed him in jail prior to his takeover of the Weimar Republic. Hitler took complete control of the German Republic in a drawn out process while Trump took complete control of all branches of government in a democratic election. Even the Supreme Court has given him carte blanche to do whatever he wants. He has pledged to be a dictator on Day One as well as to let Russia do "whatever the hell they want" in NATO countries including presumably Ukraine. So there are no guard rails on Trump just as there were none on Hitler once he took over the democratic Weimar Republic in Germany. The people that elected Trump were more persuaded by a show than they were by rationality just as the people of Germany yielded to symbols and showmanship.

Trump said, "Hitler did some good things," a statement that was much derided in the mainstream media despite the fact that it was absolutely true. Hitler brought Germany out of the Great Depression while the US and Britain were still mired in it. He repudiated the onerous terms of the Treaty of Versailles after World War One which included the payment of reparations which Hitler stopped. He remilitarized the Rhineland; he built the Luftwaffe. He annexed Austria. All these things were violations of the Treaty of Versailles, but they rebuilt the German economy. In terms of symbols and cultural values, Trump took it to the next level. The chief difference between Trump and Hitler, however, is that Hitler was a warmonger; Trump evidently is not. He has said he wants to end the wars that are raging today in Ukraine and the Middle East. As far as Ukraine is concerned, this might be a good thing. It is better that the killing stop than that national borders not be redrawn. That war is a proxy war between the US and Russia that never needed to be fought. And now US personnel are going into Ukraine for whatever supposed good reason. As soon as one of them is killed, the US will be in a direct confrontation with Russia. In 2014 Russia took over Crimea and there was never a peep out of the Obama administration or the European community that now says they are so threatened that Russia may take another piece of Ukraine. At least in that take over there was very little fighting and killing and there was no expenditure of billions of US dollars in a proxy war.

Another reason Trump won was that Merrick Garland didn't pursue the many criminal charges against Trump until it was too late. Why? Maybe he thought that things would die down first, that we were in a vulnerable period and he didn't want to incite more violence. It turned out to be a decision that enabled Trump to come back, reclaim the Presidency and have all charges against him dropped. No wonder he's out for retribution. Meanwhile, Trump was holding rallies, stage managing a comeback and eventually going all the way. Biden and Kamala were simply doing their job while Trump was putting on a show for the American people for four years! With the seriousness of the multiple charges against him, he wouldn't have been allowed to campaign again for the Presidency in any sane country. After Garland's delays, Trump's strategy of delay, delay, delay actually worked.

The notion that Democrats are only making an appeal to college educated voters is bogus. Her appeal was directly to the working class, despite the fact that only college educated voters, primarily, voted for her. There's a difference between who she was trying to help with her policies and who ended up voting for her. She didn't make an appeal to the college educated, but she ended up appealing to the college educated. That's not her fault. Finally, one needs to look at American culture (violent and vulgar) and the American electorate (violent and vulgar) to see that Trump is a perfect match with the American people, a majority of them. It IS who we are, and Trump is a perfect match! For a democracy to work a more sophisticated and educated electorate is necessary. One that is ignorantly persuaded by showmanship does not bode well for the future. In fact climate change will now, in Trump's words, do whatever the hell it wants.

Off the Top of My Head

Why Kamala Lost

by John Lawrence

She did not emphasize middle class tax cuts enough. They were certainly part of her program, and she would mention them in her stump speeches, but she needed to do a lot more than mention them. She needed to go on and on about them. She needed to compare them to the tax cuts given to the middle class by Trump, and not just say that Trump's cuts were mainly for the rich. To a large extent they were, but the middle class got at least something. She needed to emphasize how her middle class tax cuts compared favorably with the tax cuts Trump gave to the middle class, and not just say Trump's tax cuts were largely for the rich which of course they were.

Also Kamala and the Democrats were johhny-come-latelies to border security. They finally got on board with that, but saying that Trump defeated a plan in Congress that would have solved the problem was just not enough. Border security should have become a consensus issue between both parties long before it did. Democrats were late to the party. The idea that a couple could pay coyote fees of about $3000-4000 (data from the Mexican Migration Project) and crawl through a fence, request asylum and be given a court date 5 years hence during which time they could have 3 or 4 children who were legal US citizens is absolutely ridiculous. Then what are you going to do - deport the parents and leave their US citizen children here? It took Democrats far too long to get on top of this issue at least from a rhetorical perspective. The huge number that crossed during Biden's term doomed Kamala's potential term. The US has satellite technology that can spot a flea on a dog. Yet they can't use that technology to spot illegal entrants and immediately deport them. It doesn't make sense

I'm for increased legal immigration, but I'm also for strengthening the border to the point where any illegal immigration is next to impossible. The US spends a trillion dollars a year on its military and has military bases in almost every country in the world and yet cannot enforce a border so that people can only enter at legal ports of entry? Ridiculous! So now Trump gets to take credit for that solution, now that there IS a consensus about it. Democrats missed the ball and didn't articulate a coherent position successfully on this matter soon enough. As far as what to do about the illegals that are currently already here, that's a whole different matter. You can't really deport them if they have had legal US children citizens in the meantime. I guess they outsmarted the government, and in particular Joe Biden's government although to be fair Congress did nothing to help Biden solve that problem even after he was willing to do so. The mistake was to consider it a left-right issue. Left-right doesn't make sense any more. You don't have to position every issue on the left-right spectrum. Pragmatism should rule the day, and Kamala represented that, but it was too late.

Our Fragile Infrastructure: Lessons From Hurricane Helene

Our Fragile Infrastructure: Lessons From Hurricane Helene

Posted on November 5, 2024 by Ellen Brown

Buncombe County North Carolina – damage after Hurricane Helene floods. NCDOTcommunications, CC BY 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Asheville, North Carolina, is known for its historic architecture, vibrant arts scene and as a gateway to the Blue Ridge Mountains. It was a favorite escape for “climate migrants” moving from California, Arizona, and other climate-challenged vicinities, until a “500 year flood” ravaged the city this fall. 

Hurricane Helene was a wakeup call not just for stricken North Carolina residents but for people across the country following their tragic stories in the media and in the podcasts now favored by young voters for news. “Preppers” well equipped with supplies watched in helpless disbelief as homes washed away in a wall of water and mud, taking emergency supplies in the storm. Streets turned into rivers, and many businesses and homes suffered extensive water damage if they were not lost altogether. 

The raging floods were triggered by unprecedented rainfall and winds, but a network of fragile dams also played a role. On Sept 27, when the floods hit, evacuation orders were issued to residents near a number of critical dams due to their reported “imminent failure” or “catastrophic collapse.” Flood waters were overtopping the dams to the point that in some cases the top of the dam structure could not be seen. 

The dams did not collapse, but to avoid that catastrophe, floodgates and spillways had to be opened, releasing huge amounts of water over a number of days. Spokesmen said the dams had “performed as designed,” but they were designed for an earlier era with more stable, predictable climates and no population buildup below the dams.

Five days after the floods hit in East Tennessee, half a million gallons of water were still being released per second from Douglas Dam, northwest of Asheville and upstream from Knoxville on the French Broad River. (Video clip of opened floodgates.) The Watauga Dam in Tennessee was also releasing record flows, surrounding nearby homes in water. WTVC NewsChannel 9 Chattanooga reported that Chickamauga Dam, upstream from Chattanooga, released approximately 566,118 gallons of water per second. 

The Nolichucky Dam, in Tennessee near the North Carolina border, was reported to have “withstood nearly twice the water flow of Niagara Falls.” (See dramatic videos on Fox Weather showing the overflow and the floodgate release continuing three weeks later, a similar clip from 11Alive adding the damage downstream, and overflow footage on WKYC Charlotte.) Other major dams in which the floodgates were opened included Cowans Ford Dam, north of Charlotte (see video clip of the floodgate release); and Waterville Dam (also called Walters Dam), upstream from Newport in Tennessee  (video). Homeowners accused Duke Energy of sacrificing poor neighborhoods for wealthier properties, but as one official said, the excess water had to go somewhere. It had to go downstream. They did what they had to do to avoid outright collapse of the dams, a much worse disaster.  

Upriver from Asheville, the auxiliary spillway of the North Forks Dam was activated. It too is said to have “performed as designed,” but the result was again significant flooding. Mandatory evacuation orders were put in place from the dam to Biltmore Village in Asheville, which suffered major damage. North Forks Dam is classified as a ”high-hazard potential dam,” meaning its failure could result in potential loss of life and serious property damage. 

One concerned Asheville podcaster complained that the city had known for 20 years that the North Forks Dam was inadequate and a lethal danger under flood conditions, but it hadn’t been repaired. The dam was put to the test in September, when residents were told there was no choice but for the flood gates to be opened to prevent the dam from breaking. The result was a 30 foot wall of water that swept homes and lives away, rushing so fast that people were found in the tops of trees. The podcaster’s suspicions were aroused because lithium worth billions of dollars is located in Western North Carolina, where a mining company has been trying to restart operations since 2021, over community protests. 

That was also true of the nearby town of Spruce Pine, downstream from the North Toe Dam, which was submerged under eight feet of water from the combination of torrential rain and the release of the dam’s floodgates. Spruce Pine is a major producer of high-quality quartz, a rare but necessary resource for many tech products. Mining companies have been attempting to double their operations in Spruce Pine, but they too have met resistance from local landowners. For some controversial details, see here. 

Asheville is also downstream from Lake Lure Dam, which was reported on Sept. 27 to be “at risk of imminent failure” as the river was overtopping the dam. Most heavily affected was Chimney Rock, the town immediately downstream from Lake Lure, known for both its rustic scenery and its lithium mines. The damage was extensive.

According to an Oct. 2 broadcast on WBTV News in Charlotte titled “Lake Lure Dam ‘high hazard’ and needed repairs at time Helene hit,” the dam, completed in 1926, does not meet current state safety requirements. Repairs were ongoing but unfinished. Lake Lure Dam is one of 1,581 dams across the state considered “high hazard,” and according to a 2022 report, North Carolina has 194 high-hazard dams in poor or unsatisfactory condition, meaning they “may require immediate or emergency remedial action.” 

Off the Top of My Head

The Structure of the US Winner Take All Voting System Guarantees a Binary Divide in the Voting Population

by John Lawrence

Every election in the US is a contest between two candidates. Third party candidates take votes away from the party they are closest to ideologically. This holds not only for the election of President, but for every other election due to the districting system itself. For candidates for Congress there is one winner per district. For election to the Senate the state is the district with two Senators from each state. However, each Senate seat is voted upon separately so that each seat represents a winner take all election. Senators are elected to six-year terms by the people of each state. Senators’ terms are staggered so that about one-third of the Senate is up for reelection every two years. Because of all the US winner take all elections, the nation is almost predetermined to create a two party system. The two party system almost predetermines that the country will be divided into two groups. So complaining that US citizens are divided is futile, and that any candidate will "bring us altogether" is next to impossible. Other countries which have proportional representation voting systems result in the fact that they are not so bitterly divided.

The US needs to change the structure of the voting system itself in order to create a nation which is not so divided between two sets of people. With proportional representation, third parties can get representatives elected more easily. With a different system than winner take all for President, it would be possible to vote for a third party candidate without that candidate being a "spoiler" who takes votes away from the party she is closest to ideologically. If districts were larger so that more representatives per district were elected at the same time, it would be possible for representatives from multiple parties to be elected simultaneously. Proportional representation is an electoral system that elects multiple representatives in each district in proportion to the number of people who vote for them. If one third of voters back a political party, the party’s candidates win roughly one-third of the seats. The key is that multiple representatives per district means that multiple viewpoints have a chance of being represented in a representative body.

The main reason for America's majoritarian character is the electoral system for Congress. Members of Congress are elected in single-member districts according to the "first-past-the-post" (FPTP) principle, meaning that the candidate with the plurality of votes is the winner of the congressional seat. The losing party or parties win no representation at all. The first-past-the-post election tends to produce a small number of major parties, perhaps just two, a principle known in political science as Duverger's Law. Smaller parties are trampled in first-past-the-post elections. The US seems stuck with an antiquated voting system which may be dooming it as a democracy. Other types of voting systems take into account a voter's second and third place choices not just their first place choice. In this way a better compromise which could be accepted by more people is possible. With a two party system, if one party takes over and refuses to play fair, a democracy can turn into a dictatorship. The US is teetering on the brink of such a scenario. When the nation becomes sclerotic in the sense that the voting system is not easily updated, it could break altogether much like a brittle, aged bone. Problems include the electoral college, the winner take all voting system, gerrymandering and the filibuster. The US seems incapable of changing any of these aspects. A new empire might have to be created in order for an updated, more fair and intelligent voting system to be implemented.

Off the Top of My Head

Kamala Harris is a Pragmatist, the Only True American Philosophy

by John Lawrence

Kamala wants to strengthen the border. That's supposedly a right wing issue. She wants to give the middle class a tax break. That's a right wing issue too. She wants to strengthen the safety net. That's supposedly a left wing issue. The division of the political spectrum into left wing and right wing issues doesn't make sense any more. No one seems to be interested in foreign policy as an issue in this election so left and right are moot in terms of foreign policy. I am so glad that Democrats have co-opted the tax issue. President Biden first caught on to this when he said he wouldn't raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000. This makes so much sense. Tax the rich, but give the middle class a tax break. Why haven't Democrats thought of making this the issue till recently? The only people opposing Kamala's suggested increased safety net provisions such as giving first time home buyers $25,000 for a down payment or increasing Medicare to incorporate home care for elders are right wing Republicans who don't believe the government should help anyone especially if it raises their taxes by one cent. Increasing the safety net does not necessarily mean anyone's taxes need to be increased. During the 2008 Great Recession, the government spent billions to bail out the banks without raising anyone's taxes. The US dollar is a fiat currency which can just be printed to pay for anything. Thanks to Modern Monetary Theory for explaining that. However, the danger in printing too much money is inflation which the MMT theorists have pointed out. Inflation has come back down to normal so that that shouldn't be an issue going forward. Whether the problem was the dollar giveaways during the pandemic or other issues has not been conclusively determined. The point is that there is not necessarily a cause and effect situation between taxation or lack thereof and government spending.

So the difference between Republican proposed tax breaks and Democratic proposed tax breaks should be made clear. Republicans, Trump in particular, will give huge tax breaks to the rich and modest tax breaks to the middle class with the resulting deficit being added to the national debt. Kamala's tax breaks would only affect the middle class while increased taxes on the rich would pay for them. Thus would not add to the national debt. In fact taxes should be raised on the rich not only to use the money to benefit the middle class but just on principle, the principle being that economic inequality is at levels not seen since the era of kings, monarchs, emperors and czars, in other words not since feudalism. Extreme economic inequality bodes ill against a democracy which must have a strong middle class in order to stay a democracy. Otherwise, you have extremely rich guys like Elon Musk out there buying votes with his million dollar a day giveaways.

I predict this election will see women outvoting men so that Kamala will win. It won't be men electing the first woman President; it will be women doing it. Men will do their best to elect Trump. They all seem to be making excuses for him saying "he doesn't really mean that" to all his outrageous statements. There's no reason not to think that Trump is a dangerous guy who will transform the nature of America and estrange our allies by implementing a radical change in foreign policy. There needs to be a change from Biden's foreign policy in order to end the two wars, but it should be done in association with our allies, not by abruptly separating from our allies. The people out there who are apologists for Trump need to think twice before voting for him.The American economy is the envy of the world, not in the toilet as some of them would have you believe. We need continuity with the Biden government, not a radical change. Inflation is under control. The main economic issue is the high cost of real estate and rent. Kamala has proposed specific plans to deal with this; Trump has not. Trump's proposed tariffs would add to the financial burdens of the middle class. Any one who has a brain in their head will vote for Kamala. Unfortunately, there are many Americans that do not.

Off the Top of My Head

The Economist Says the US Economy is the Envy of the World: How Dumb Can Half of Americans Be Who Think Trump Would Do a Better Job on the Economy?

by John Lawrence

The October 19, 2024 edition of the Economist headlines that the US economy is the envy of the world. Yet Biden is given hardly any credit for a good economy. Why that is? The only explanation is that at least half of US citizens are terribly ill informed which is another way of saying they're ignorant. Probably because they listen to news sources totally biased against Joe Biden, the Democrats and everything they stand for. The dumbing down of American is exemplified by the fact that at the Republican convention the high point was when Hulk Hogan ripped off his shirt. Dumbing down? To the max. The cultural divide between red states and blues states may be mutating, but, as Fareed Zakaria has characterized it, it is still there. It's a divide between college educated and non-college educated people and it's a divide between men and women. One could even go so far as saying it's a divide between the well-informed and the ignorant or between the smart and the dumb. Trump's cult of personality has drug all of one side of this divide into his camp. Kamala and the Democrats represent the other side of this divide.

The left right political spectrum makes no sense any more. Unless, that is, it can be said that the left represents an intelligent approach to the problems of American society and the right represents a bunch of angry, hateful people. The right, as represented by Trump, seems to be only interested in creating an alternative universe in which facts don't matter and only an entertaining form of spite does. Half of America seems to be complicit in Trump's lies and bellicosity. Half of America seems to be entertained by Trump's antics. Half of America seems to look no farther than a bunch of symbols of patriotism characterized by Trump flags and even Trump God Bless the USA Bibles (made in China).

The American economy has now been characterized as having achieved a "soft landing." "I think we should declare a soft landing now," said James Bullard, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, in an interview with CNN earlier this month. 

American shoppers continued to fuel economic growth in the third quarter with their spending, according to the report. That marked the biggest contributor to GDP growth in the third quarter by far. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic output. Spending accelerated sharply in the third quarter, driven by purchases of big-ticket items, while spending on services eased a bit.

So why are so many voters so concerned with the economy? Why is this the biggest issue for so many voters? The American economy is the envy of the world. However, just because "the economy" is doing so well doesn't mean that all those within it are doing well. We would have to look at the distribution of income and the distribution of wealth. Some well off people could be doing most of the spending while others have very little to spend. 31.3% of the households make less than $50,000 a year. 27.8% make between $50,000 and $100,000, and 40.9% make over $100,000. If a household is making less than $50,000 a year, they are certifiably poor. Those making $50,000 to $100,000 are probably lower middle class. They are those who probably cannot afford to buy a house, but are able to afford to pay rent. 40.9% are making over $100,000. Those making over $100,000 are probably the ones doing all the spending making the economy "the envy of the world". What about the distribution of wealth? The bottom 50% own 3% of the wealth. Obviously they don't own assets such as a house. They are renters and will remain so. Between 50% and 90% of the households own 31% of the wealth so 10% of households own approximately two thirds of the wealth. According to the latest Gallup poll, only about 54% of Americans own any stocks. Meanwhile, only about 63% of Americans own real estate according to the Census Bureau. So income and wealth are not evenly distributed over the American economy, and roughly the bottom 50% of American households have little wealth and meager incomes. The upper 50% are doing quite well, thank you.

Kamala Harris is a pragmatist. She's not ideologically driven. She combines both left and right pragmatically. But primarily she appeals or should appeal to the lower 50% in terms of income and wealth. The upper 50% traditionally vote Republican. However, Trump has attracted a cult following which includes a lot of lower income and lower wealth people. These people are voting against their self interest thinking that Trump is going to help them economically more than Kamala would. Then Kamala is attracting a lot of higher income people who want the US to remain a democracy governed by the rule of law and also want reproductive freedom. That's why traditional voting patterns are somewhat obsolete.

Off the Top of My Head

Rudy Giuliani Was Wrong and He Was Made a Fool Of

by John Lawrence

Why are half the people in the country, in which half the people consider Trump a fascist, still willing to vote for him? Rudy Giuliani said the following at Trump's January 6, 2020 rally:

“Over the next 10 days, we get to see the machines that are crooked, the ballots that are fraudulent, and if we’re wrong, we will be made fools of, but if we’re right, a lot of them will go to jail,” he told the crowd that day. “So, let’s have trial by combat.”

Well, Rudy was wrong, and he was made a fool of. Rudy Giuliani must give control of luxury items and his Manhattan apartment to the Georgia election workers he defamed, a judge has ruled. He must feel pretty foolish by now.

So why are so many people still supporting Trump? Because they are complicit in his lies, and, if he is made a fool of, they all collectively will be made fools of. This is why so many will vote for Trump. They think that by doing so, they will be vindicated and not made fools of. If Trump is elected, history about January 6 will be rewritten. He will free all the "hostages" currently serving jail time because of their role in the insurrection. They will be honored as heroes. All the lawsuits against Trump will magically disappear. All the Trump supporters complicit in his lies will be exonerated. However, if Trump is not elected and Kamala wins, he will face the consequences of several lawsuits and could go to jail. All his supporters collectively, in addition to Rudy Giuliani, will have been made fools of, and none of the January 6 rioters will get out of jail, much less will they be honored.

The 2024 US Presidential election in many ways will be a watershed moment. The whole nation in effect will have to live a lie if Trump is elected, and, if he's not, half the nation who believed in Trump will have been delivered a blow to their collective egos. If Trump is elected, the whole world will be changed. Instead of the US being the world's primary leading power, the one that the whole world looks up to, it will instead be only in it for itself making itself great again by withdrawing from the world community. The American empire with 750 military bases in 80 countries around the world would presumably be shut down and the resultant savings be allocated elsewhere presumably to make America great again.

The American Empire will probably come to an end if Trump is elected. Our European allies wouldn't trust us any more. Vladimir Putin would be vindicated and Ukraine partitioned. Russia would have a free hand in Ukraine. Netanyahu would have a free hand in the Middle East. Republican whip Tom Emmer said on CNN that "the American people are only interested in the economy" or words to that effect. That's all the German people were concerned about in the 1930s, and Hitler delivered on that. I doubt if Trump could be as clever. Trump's tariffs would destroy the American economy and possibly land the whole world in a Depression. The American experiment in democracy would be over. As Benjamin Franklin said, "It's a republic if you can keep it." In order to keep it, Kamala Harris must be elected. The alternative is fascism.

Off the Top of My Head

Kamala Equals Pragmatism

by John Lawrence

Last night on the Town Hall Kamala made it clear that she is a pragmatist. This makes a lot of sense since the old political left right spectrum in and of itself doesn't make sense any more. Take the border for instance. There is a consensus that no one should be coming across the border illegally. Even if applying for amnesty there is a legal and an illegal way to do it. Enough resources need to be applied to the border to make sure that the only option for people wanting to come into the US is the legal option. On this both Democrats and Republicans finally agree. Pragmatism is the penultimate American value. As Kamala said she just wants to "get stuff done."  As to whether or not her administration would be "just a continuance of the Biden administration," what difference does it make? Joe Biden did more for the American economy since Franklin Roosevelt. Most of this was directed towards sorely needed infrastructure improvement. American infrastructure has not kept up with most of the rest of the developed world. Now with the weather disasters caused by climate change, it needs to be hardened and improved that much more. However, all a lot of Americans, including those who can most afford it, seem to be fixated on is the price of groceries.

As for fracking, even under the Biden administration, there has been a capitulation to the fossil fuel industry and a realization that the American people will not sacrifice their lifestyles in order to combat climate change. Therefore, not only fracking but every other concession to fossil fuels has been made in order to keep gas prices low. The fact is that renewable energy production has fallen far short insofar as providing all of our energy needs. The demand for energy has outstripped the increase in renewable energy production. Hence, Kamala, not to mention Joe Biden, is now for fracking. So climate change continues apace. Weather disasters will get worse. Instead of describing floods as "1000 year floods," we should now be describing them as "twice a year floods." Americans seem to accept these weather disasters as long as the Federal government provides the money to rebuild after the disaster takes place. The insurance market is a different story. Private insurance will no longer be available in many regions of the country. Perhaps people who want to relocate out of disaster prone areas should study the insurance maps to see where insurance is available and where it is not, and then make their choices.

Romans were bought off from thinking critically by "bread and circuses." Americans seem to be following the same pattern. Instead of being concerned about climate change and infrastructure development to mitigate against climate change, Americans complain about grocery prices while attending concerts where the ticket prices are in the thousands of dollars. In fact the ones who complain about grocery prices the most are those who can well afford them, those for whom grocery prices are a minimum part of their budgets. Americans have been trained to only think about their own personal economic situation and not about the good of the world, not about helping those whose economic situations are much worse. People is Gaza are starving. People in Sudan are starving. People in Cuba don't have any electricity. UNHCR most recently estimated that, by the end of 2023, for the first time in recorded history, the number of people forcibly displaced is now over 117.3 million, with over 31.6 million refugees under UNHCR's mandate and another 6 million Palestinian refugees. These people have far more to worry about than grocery prices and that's if even groceries are available at all.

As for Kamala, sure her administration would be a continuation of the Biden administration and that's a good thing. Part of Biden's Build Back Better plan was to expand Medicare to provide for in home caregivers. That part was stripped out of the infrastructure bill due to compromises with Republicans. Now this is part of what Kamala wants to do - to pick up pieces previously rejected by Republicans. Of course she can't say that. She will be branded an extreme leftist by Republicans just for wanting to help people and improve the lives of Americans. In the final analysis though, Kamala is a pragmatist just wanting to "get stuff done" while Repiublicans are still down the Qanon rabbit hole palavering about inconsequential things that have nothing to do with anything.